IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v67y2018icp36-44.html

Uncovering equity market contagion among BRICS countries: An application of the multivariate GARCH model

Author

Listed:
  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent of the transmission of financial shocks between South Africa and other members of the BRICS grouping in order to infer the degree of contagion during the period 1996–2012. The paper makes use of a multivariate VAR-DCC-GARCH model to this end. The paper finds evidence of cross-transmission and dependence between South Africa and Brazil. However, the empirical results show that South Africa is more affected by crises originating from China, India and Russia while these countries are least affected by crises originating from South Africa. The findings of this paper should be of interest to policy makers in the BRICS grouping should they be considering the possibility of full capital market liberalization and to the international investor who is looking at diversifying portfolios in the BRICS grouping.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "Uncovering equity market contagion among BRICS countries: An application of the multivariate GARCH model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 36-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:67:y:2018:i:c:p:36-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2017.04.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976917301473
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2017.04.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 2002. "A Brazilian Debt-Crisis," NBER Working Papers 9160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    3. Jarl G. Kallberg & Paolo Pasquariello, 2005. "An Examination of the Asian Crisis: Regime Shifts in Currency and Equity Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 169-212, January.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2002. "A Brazilian Debt-Crisis Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    8. Kanokwan Chancharoenchai & Sel Dibooglu, 2006. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Six Southeast Asian Stock Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 4-17, April.
    9. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    10. Jan Gottschalk & Mr. Ashok Bhundia, 2003. "Sources of Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/252, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    12. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    13. George J. Borjas & Valerie A. Ramey, 1995. "Foreign Competition, Market Power, and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 1075-1110.
    14. Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos & Ms. Tatiana Damjanovic, 2001. "The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2001/169, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Flavin, Thomas & O'Connor, Thomas, 2010. "The sequencing of stock market liberalization events and corporate financing decisions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 183-204, September.
    16. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mwamba, Muteba, 2015. "A multivariate model for the prediction of stock returns in an emerging market: A comparison of parametric and non-parametric models," MPRA Paper 62028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
    18. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2017. "Assessing the readiness of the BRICS grouping for mutually beneficial financial integration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 204-219, November.
    19. Morales, Lucía & Gassie, Esmeralda, 2011. "Structural breaks and financial volatility: Lessons from BRIC countries," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 13, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    20. Pretorius, Anmar & de Beer, Jesse, 2004. "Contagion in Africa: South Africa and a troubled neighbour, Zimbabwe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 703-717, July.
    21. Ajit Singh, 1998. "Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 8(1), pages 165-182.
    22. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    23. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga, 2009. "An Assessment of the Degree of South Africa's Financial Integration into the World Economy," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 67-79.
    24. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    25. R. F. Engle & A. J. Patton, 2001. "What good is a volatility model?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 237-245.
    26. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emerson Fernandes Marcal & Pedro Valls Pereira & Diogenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2011. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2365-2379.
    2. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    3. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2008. "Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    4. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    5. Marçal, Emerson F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008. "Testando A Hipótese De Contágio A Partir De Modelos Multivariados De Volatilidade [Testing the contagion hypotheses using multivariate volatility models]," MPRA Paper 10356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2016. "International contagion through financial versus non-financial firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-163.
    7. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Ariel M. Viale & David A. Bessler & James W. Kolari, 2014. "On the Structure of Financial Contagion: Econometric Tests and Mercosur Evidence," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 373-400, November.
    9. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    11. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Masih, Rumi & Masih, Mansur & Alhabshi, Syed Othman, 2014. "Stock market co-movements: Islamic versus conventional equity indices with multi-timescales analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 553-571.
    13. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    14. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation Analysis of Stock Market Contagion: Evidence from the 2007-2010 Financial Crises," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 637-661.
    15. Dua, Pami & Tuteja, Divya, 2016. "Financial crises and dynamic linkages across international stock and currency markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 249-261.
    16. Thi Bich Ngoc TRAN, 2018. "Contagion Risks in Emerging Stock Markets: New Evidence from Asia and Latin America," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Gagnon, Louis & Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2006. "Price and Volatility Transmission across Borders," Working Paper Series 2006-5, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    18. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    19. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Shamsuddin, Abul & Easton, Steve, 2014. "Dynamic correlation analysis of spill-over effects of interest rate risk and return on Australian and US financial firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 378-396.
    20. Urbina, Jilber, 2013. "A component model for Dynamic Conditional Correlations: Disentangling interdependence from contagion," MPRA Paper 75579, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2016.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:67:y:2018:i:c:p:36-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.