When does state capacity Work? Social fragmentation and public goods provision in rural Japan

It is widely assumed that strong state capacity improves public goods provision. Yet, most existing studies treat the state as an autonomous provider, overlooking how its effects depend on societal context. This study examines how social fragmentation conditions the relationship between state capacity and public goods provision, drawing on original data from rural Japan. The findings reveal that high state capacity enhances provision only where social fragmentation is high; in more cohesive regions, strong state intervention may disrupt informal cooperation, reducing effectiveness. This non-linear effect is robust across multiple checks and is mediated through the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives. These results highlight the conditional nature of state capacity and the importance of state–society relations in shaping public goods outcomes. The study contributes to broader debates on governance and development by demonstrating that state capacity does not operate in isolation, and its effectiveness varies with the structure of social relations.