IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v157y2026ics0304393225001473.html

The impact of AI on global knowledge work

Author

Listed:
  • Ide, Enrique
  • Talamàs, Eduard

Abstract

We analyze how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes global knowledge work in a two-region world where firms organize production hierarchically to use knowledge efficiently: the most knowledgeable individuals specialize in problem-solving, while others perform routine work. Before AI, the Advanced Economy specializes in problem-solving services, whereas the Emerging Economy focuses on routine work. AI converts compute — which is located in the Advanced Economy — into autonomous “AI agents” that perfectly substitute for humans with a given level of knowledge. Basic AI reduces the Advanced Economy’s net exports of problem-solving services, potentially reversing pre-AI trade patterns. In contrast, sophisticated AI expands these exports, reinforcing existing trade patterns. Finally, we show that a global ban on AI autonomy redistributes AI’s gains toward lower-skilled workers, while a regional ban — such as prohibiting autonomy only in the Emerging Economy — offers little benefit to lower-skilled workers and harms the most knowledgeable individuals in that region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ide, Enrique & Talamàs, Eduard, 2026. "The impact of AI on global knowledge work," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:157:y:2026:i:c:s0304393225001473
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393225001473
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor, 2024. "Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs," NBER Working Papers 32140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    3. Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2015. "Knowledge-Based Hierarchies: Using Organizations to Understand the Economy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, August.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Has Globalization Gone Too Far?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 81-94, March.
    5. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2025. "Generative AI at Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 889-942.
    6. Nordhaus, William D., 2007. "Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 128-159, March.
    7. William Fuchs & Luis Garicano & Luis Rayo, 2015. "Optimal Contracting and the Organization of Knowledge," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 632-658.
    8. repec:hrv:faseco:4784031 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dossani, Rafiq & Kenney, Martin, 2007. "The Next Wave of Globalization: Relocating Service Provision to India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 772-791, May.
    10. Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "How Many US Jobs Might be Offshorable?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(2), pages 41-78, April.
    11. Pol Antràs & Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "Offshoring in a Knowledge Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 31-77.
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2013. "Alternative Measures of Offshorability: A Survey Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 97-128.
    13. Alonso, Cristian & Berg, Andrew & Kothari, Siddharth & Papageorgiou, Chris & Rehman, Sidra, 2022. "Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 18-37.
    14. Firooz, Hamid & Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2025. "Reshoring, automation, and labor markets under trade uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2004. "Inequality and the Organization of Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 197-202, May.
    16. Nicholas Bloom & Luis Garicano & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2014. "The Distinct Effects of Information Technology and Communication Technology on Firm Organization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 2859-2885, December.
    17. Luis Garicano, 2000. "Hierarchies and the Organization of Knowledge in Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 874-904, October.
    18. Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "Organization and Inequality in a Knowledge Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1383-1435.
    19. Enrique Ide & Eduard Talamas, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in the Knowledge Economy," Papers 2312.05481, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aaron Chatterji & Daniel Rock & Eduard Talamas, 2025. "Transformative AI and Firms," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Transformative AI, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fasheng Xu & Jing Hou & Wei Chen & Karen Xie, 2025. "Generative AI and Organizational Structure in the Knowledge Economy," Papers 2506.00532, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    3. Lorenzo Caliendo & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2012. "The Impact of Trade on Organization and Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1393-1467.
    4. Alex Farach, 2026. "AI as Coordination-Compressing Capital: Task Reallocation, Organizational Redesign, and the Regime Fork," Papers 2602.16078, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    5. Anna Gumpert, 2018. "The Organization of Knowledge in Multinational Firms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(6), pages 1929-1976.
    6. Chakraborty, Pavel & Raveh, Ohad, 2018. "Input-trade liberalization and the demand for managers: Evidence from India," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 159-176.
    7. Sotiris Blanas, 2024. "The distinct effects of information technologies and communication technologies on skill demand," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 442-490, October.
    8. Filippo Belloc & Gabriel Burdin & Fabio Landini, 2020. "Corporate Hierarchies and Labor Institutions," Department of Economics University of Siena 827, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    9. Florian Scheuer & Iván Werning, 2017. "The Taxation of Superstars," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 211-270.
    10. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    11. Mitchell Hoffman & Christopher T. Stanton, 2024. "People, Practices, and Productivity: A Review of New Advances in Personnel Economics," NBER Working Papers 32849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Pol Antràs & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "Organizations and Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 43-64, May.
    13. Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2015. "Knowledge-Based Hierarchies: Using Organizations to Understand the Economy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, August.
    14. Luis Medrano‐Adán & Vicente Salas‐Fumás & Javier Sanchez‐Asin, 2024. "Organization of production and income inequality," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 582-604, August.
    15. Grüner, Hans Peter, 2009. "Information technology: Efficient restructuring and the productivity puzzle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 916-929, December.
    16. David Hummels & Jakob R. Munch & Chong Xiang, 2018. "Offshoring and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 981-1028, September.
    17. Pol Antràs & Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "Offshoring in a Knowledge Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 31-77.
    18. repec:hrv:faseco:4784031 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chakraborty, Pavel & Chakrabarti, Anindya S. & Chatterjee, Chirantan, 2023. "Cross-border environmental regulation and firm labor demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    20. Tobias Stucki & Daniel Wochner, 2019. "Technological and organizational capital: Where complementarities exist," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 458-487, June.
    21. Blanchard, Emily & Willmann, Gerald, 2016. "Trade, education, and the shrinking middle class," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 263-278.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:157:y:2026:i:c:s0304393225001473. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.