IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v169y2026ics0264837726002061.html

The speculation trap and the distress push: Divergent pathways of peri-urban agriculture in Tanzania

Author

Listed:
  • Mushi, Cuthbert W.
  • Kapinga, Agnes G.

Abstract

Rapid urbanization is transforming the structure of agriculture across Africa; however, its impact on crop diversification remains debated. Using georeferenced data from the Tanzania LSMS-ISA survey and a double-hurdle econometric model, this study examines the motivators of diversification in peri-urban environments. We compare mainland with the extreme land scarcity and real-estate pressures of Zanzibar; we find important structural paradoxes. First, a negative relationship exists between formal land tenure and the degree of diversification. This finding suggests that property rights in hyper-specified markets provide incentives to the commodification of land and monoculture instead of complex farming systems. Second, the study dismisses the linear scale-diversification hypothesis by showing a strong u-shaped pattern in the mainland peri-urban zones. Micro-holders diversify mainly for survival (distress push) while large commercial farms diversify for profit (accumulation push) and leave medium-scale operations to specialize. Moreover, biophysical factors, especially heavy clay soils, significantly restrict diversification options regardless of economic incentives. These results raise questions about the validity of uniform policy frameworks and suggest that conventional land titling programs, highly speculative real-estate markets could potentially harm agro-biodiversity in rapidly growing island economies unless they are accompanied by agricultural conservation programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Mushi, Cuthbert W. & Kapinga, Agnes G., 2026. "The speculation trap and the distress push: Divergent pathways of peri-urban agriculture in Tanzania," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:169:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726002061
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837726002061
    Download Restriction: Full text may be restricted for ScienceDirect subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barrett, Christopher B., 2008. "Smallholder market participation: Concepts and evidence from eastern and southern Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 299-317, August.
    2. Khatun, Dilruba & Roy, B.C., 2012. "Rural Livelihood Diversification in West Bengal: Determinants and Constraints," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(01), June.
    3. Yuzhu Zou & Zhenshan Liu & Yan Chen & Yin Wang & Shijing Feng, 2024. "Crop Rotation and Diversification in China: Enhancing Sustainable Agriculture and Resilience," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Cragg, John G, 1971. "Some Statistical Models for Limited Dependent Variables with Application to the Demand for Durable Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 829-844, September.
    5. nan, 2001. "Land tenure and natural resource management: A comparative study of agrarian communities in Asia and Africa," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 0-8018-6747-9 edited by Otsuka, Keijiro; Place, Frank, June.
    6. Van Dusen, M. Eric & Taylor, J. Edward, 2005. "Missing markets and crop diversity: evidence from Mexico," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 513-531, August.
    7. Allen, James E., 2018. "Are agricultural markets more developed around cities? Testing for urban heterogeneity in separability in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 199-212.
    8. Ken E. Giller & Thomas Delaune & João Vasco Silva & Katrien Descheemaeker & Gerrie Ven & Antonius G.T. Schut & Mark Wijk & James Hammond & Zvi Hochman & Godfrey Taulya & Regis Chikowo & Sudha Narayana, 2021. "The future of farming: Who will produce our food?," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(5), pages 1073-1099, October.
    9. Otsuka, Keijiro & Place, Frank, 2001. "Land Tenure And Natural Resource Management: A Comparative Study Of Agrarian Communities In Asia And Africa," Food Policy Statements 16593, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Poulsen, Melissa N. & McNab, Philip R. & Clayton, Megan L. & Neff, Roni A., 2015. "A systematic review of urban agriculture and food security impacts in low-income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 131-146.
    11. Brasselle, Anne-Sophie & Gaspart, Frederic & Platteau, Jean-Philippe, 2002. "Land tenure security and investment incentives: puzzling evidence from Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 373-418, April.
    12. James Heckman, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    13. Hepelwa, Aloyce, 2021. "Potential of Fragmented Landholding on Crop Diversification and Credit Worthiness to Smallholder Farmers in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    14. Otsuka, Keijiro & Place, Frank, 2001. "Land tenure and natural resource management: a comparative study of agrarian communities in Africa and Asia," Food policy statements 34, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Tittonell, P. & Vanlauwe, B. & de Ridder, N. & Giller, K.E., 2007. "Heterogeneity of crop productivity and resource use efficiency within smallholder Kenyan farms: Soil fertility gradients or management intensity gradients?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 376-390, May.
    16. William Lin & G. W. Dean & C. V. Moore, 1974. "An Empirical Test of Utility vs. Profit Maximization in Agricultural Production," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 56(3), pages 497-508.
    17. Nolwazi Z. Khumalo & Melusi Sibanda & Lelethu Mdoda, 2024. "Implications of a Climate-Smart Approach to Food and Income Security for Urban Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-23, February.
    18. Benin, S. & Smale, M. & Pender, J. & Gebremedhin, B. & Ehui, S., 2004. "The economic determinants of cereal crop diversity on farms in the Ethiopian highlands," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 197-208, December.
    19. Bruno Losch & Sandrine Fréguin-Gresh & Eric Thomas White, 2012. "Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited : Challenges for Late Developing Countries in a Globalizing World [Transformations rurales et développement : Les défis du changement structurel dans un monde globalisé]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12481.
    20. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12482 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. William J. Burke, 2009. "Fitting and interpreting Cragg's tobit alternative using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 9(4), pages 584-592, December.
    22. Luitfred Kissoly, 2023. "Households’ participation in agri-food based livelihoods: Insights from urban and peri-urban contexts of Tanzania," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2196859-219, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopher Ugochukwu Nwafor & Abiodun A. Ogundeji & Carlu van der Westhuizen, 2020. "Adoption of ICT-Based Information Sources and Market Participation among Smallholder Livestock Farmers in South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    2. Reyes, Byron & Donovan, Cynthia & Bernsten, Richard H. & Maredia, Mywish K., 2012. "Market participation and sale of potatoes by smallholder farmers in the central highlands of Angola: A Double Hurdle approach," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126655, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Tesfaye Woldeyohanes & Thomas Heckelei & Yves Surry, 2017. "Effect of off-farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 207-218, March.
    4. Martin Paul Tabe‐Ojong & Abebayehu Girma Geffersa, 2024. "Complementary technology adoption and smallholder commercialization: Panel data evidence from Ethiopia," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(3), pages 1151-1174, September.
    5. Linzi Zheng & Yongjie Zheng & Zimo Zhang & Yan Jiang & Xiaoqi Liu & Lei Feng, 2026. "Empowering landscapes: women’s formal land rights and their impact on rural investments and land transfer in China," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. di Gregorio, Monica & Hagedorn, Konrad & Kirk, Michael & Korf, Benedikt & McCarthy, Nancy & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela & Swallow, Brent M., 2008. "Property Rights, Collective Action, and Poverty: The Role of Institutions for Poverty Reduction," CAPRi Working Papers 44354, CGIAR, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Negash, Martha, 2015. "Drivers of bioenergy crop adoption: evidence from Ethiopia's castor bean contract farming," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 230226, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Ogundari, Kolawole & Arifalo, Sadiat Funmilayo, 2013. "Determinants of Household Demand for Fresh Fruit and Vegetable in Nigeria: A Double Hurdle Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(3), pages 1-18, August.
    9. Nazziwa-Nviiri, L. & Van Campenhout, Bjorn & Amwonya, D., 2017. "Stimulating agricultural technology adoption lessons from fertilizer use among Ugandan potato farmers," IFPRI discussion papers 1608, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Rie Muraoka & Hsiaoping Chien & Minjuan Zhao, 2023. "Production and Market Participation of Buckwheat Farmers: Micro-Evidence from Shaanxi Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Ngouhouo Poufoun, Jonas & Abildtrup, Jens & Sonwa, Dénis Jean & Delacote, Philippe, 2016. "The value of endangered forest elephants to local communities in a transboundary conservation landscape," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 70-86.
    12. Sigei, Geoffrey & Bett, Hillary & Kibet, Lawrence, 2014. "Determinants of Market Participation among Small-scale Pineapple Farmers in Kericho County, Kenya," MPRA Paper 56149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Alhassan Andani & John Baptist D. Jatoe & Ramatu M. Al-Hassan, 2022. "Production of Indigenous Food Crops: Implications for Children’s Nutritional Status of Farm Households in Northern Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 2651-2665, December.
    14. Oliver Schulte & Trung Thanh Nguyen & Ulrike Grote, 2022. "The Effect of Renting in Cropland on Livelihood Choices and Agricultural Commercialization: A Case Study from Rural Vietnam," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(6), pages 2878-2898, December.
    15. Glenn P. Jenkins & Hope Amala Anyabolu & Pejman Bahramian, 2019. "Family decision-making for educational expenditure: new evidence from survey data for Nigeria," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(52), pages 5663-5673, November.
    16. Olwande, John & Smale, Melinda & Mathenge, Mary K. & Place, Frank & Mithöfer, Dagmar, 2015. "Agricultural marketing by smallholders in Kenya: A comparison of maize, kale and dairy," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-32.
    17. CAMARA, Alhassane, 2017. "Market participation of smallholders and the role of the upstream segment: evidence from Guinea," MPRA Paper 78903, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2017.
    18. Guta, Dawit & Zerriffi, Hisham & Baumgartner, Jill & Jain, Abhishek & Mani, Sunil & Jack, Darby & Carter, Ellison & Shen, Guofeng & Orgill-Meyer, Jennifer & Rosenthal, Joshua & Dickinson, Katherine & , 2024. "Moving Beyond Clean Cooking Energy adoption: Using Indian ACCESS panel data to understand solid fuel suspension," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    19. Porgo, Mohamed & Kuwornu, John K.M. & Zahonogo, Pam & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Egyir, Irene S., 2018. "Credit constraints and cropland allocation decisions in rural Burkina Faso," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 666-674.
    20. Abu, Benjamin Musah & Domanban, Paul Bata & Haruna, Issahaku, 2017. "Microcredit Loan Repayment Default among Small Scale Enterprises: A Double Hurdle Approach," MPRA Paper 101576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:169:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726002061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.