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JUE Insight: The determinants of the differential exposure to COVID-19 in New York city and their evolution over time

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  • Almagro, Milena
  • Orane-Hutchinson, Angelo

Abstract

We argue that occupations are a key explanatory variable for understanding the early transmission of COVID-19 in New York City, finding that they play a larger role than other key demographics such as race or income. Moreover, we find no evidence that commuting patterns are significant after controlling for occupations. On the other hand, racial disparities still persist for Blacks and Hispanics compared with Whites, although the disparities’ magnitudes are economically small. We perform our analysis over a range of several weeks to evaluate how different channels interact with the progression of the pandemic and the stay-at-home order. While the coefficient magnitudes of many occupations and demographics decrease, we find evidence consistent with higher intra-household contagion over time. Finally, our results also suggest that crowded spaces play a more important role than population density in the spread of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Almagro, Milena & Orane-Hutchinson, Angelo, 2022. "JUE Insight: The determinants of the differential exposure to COVID-19 in New York city and their evolution over time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0094119020300644
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2020.103293
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    3. Gilles Duranton & Jessie Handbury, 2023. "COVID and Cities, Thus Far," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 29(2), pages 6-52, October.
    4. Seongyoun Shin & Jaewoong Won, 2025. "Investigating the Role of Urban Factors in COVID-19 Transmission During the Pre- and Post-Omicron Periods: A Case Study of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-17, February.
    5. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Strange, William C., 2024. "JUE 2007–2023: Rising impact," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Tsai, I-Chun & Chiang, Ying-Hui & Lin, Shih-Yuan, 2022. "Effect of COVID-19 lockdowns on city-center and suburban housing markets: Evidence from Hangzhou, China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Krause, Melanie & Seidel, André, 2024. "Unlocking neighborhood density," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Noel A Manzano Gómez, 2023. "Planning for social distancing: How the legacy of historical epidemics shaped COVID-19's spread in Madrid," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1570-1587, July.

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