IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/15050.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Much Does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other US Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Glaeser, Edward L
  • Gorback, Caitlin
  • Redding, Stephen J.

Abstract

How effective are restrictions on geographic mobility in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic? Using zip code data for Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, New York (NYC), and Philadelphia, we estimate that total COVID-19 cases per capita decrease on average by approximately 20 percent for every ten percentage point fall in mobility between February and May 2020. To address endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by the share of workers in remote work friendly occupations, and find a somewhat larger average decline of COVID-19 cases per capita of 27 percent. Using weekly data by zip code for NYC and a panel data specification including week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a similar average decline of around 17 percent, which becomes larger when we measure mobility using NYC turnstile data rather than cellphone data. We find substantial heterogeneity across both space and over time, with stronger effects for NYC, Boston and Philadelphia than for Atlanta and Chicago, and the largest estimated coefficients for NYC in the early stages of the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Glaeser, Edward L & Gorback, Caitlin & Redding, Stephen J., 2020. "How Much Does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other US Cities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=15050
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Argente & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Munseob Lee, 2022. "The Cost of Privacy: Welfare Effects of the Disclosure of COVID-19 Cases," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 176-186, March.
    2. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit Khandelwal & Wookun Kim & Cristiano Mantovani & Edouard Schaal, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 503-522, December.
    3. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher T. Stanton, 2020. "How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey," Working Papers 2020-42, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2020. "Learning Epidemiology by Doing: The Empirical Implications of a Spatial SIR Model with Behavioral Responses," MPRA Paper 101059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Victor Couture & Jonathan I. Dingel & Allison E. Green & Jessie Handbury & Kevin R. Williams, 2020. "Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cuñat, Alejandro & Zymek, Robert, 2022. "The (structural) gravity of epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Alfaro, Laura & Faia, Ester & Lamersdorf, Nora & Saidi, Farzad, 2020. "Social Interactions in Pandemics: Fear, Altruism, and Reciprocity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14716, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    11. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City," NBER Working Papers 27021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gorback, Caitlin & Redding, Stephen J., 2022. "JUE Insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other U.S. cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Pol Antras & Stephen J Redding & Esteban Rossi Hansberg, 2020. "Globalization and Pandemics," Working Papers 267, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    3. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Giannone, Elisa & Paixão, Nuno & Pang, Xinle, 2022. "JUE Insight: The geography of pandemic containment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    6. Elisa Giannone & Nuno Paixao & Xinle Pang, 2021. "The Geography of Pandemic Containment," Staff Working Papers 21-26, Bank of Canada.
    7. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Brotherhood, Luiz & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Da Mata, Daniel & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Slums and pandemics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Andrew Atkeson & Karen A. Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2020. "Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2020-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    11. Monte, Ferdinando, 2020. "Mobility Zones," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    12. Daniel Graeber & Alexander S. Kritikos & Johannes Seebauer, 2021. "COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1187, October.
    13. Michael D. Noel, 2022. "Competitive survival in a devastated industry: Evidence from hotels during COVID‐19," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 3-24, February.
    14. Jacek Rothert & Ryan Brady & Michael Insler, 2020. "The Fragmented United States of America: The impact of scattered lock-down policies on country-wide infections," Departmental Working Papers 65, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    15. Bruno Carvalho & Susana Peralta & Joao Pereira dos Santos, 2020. "What and how did people buy during the Great Lockdown? Evidence from electronic payments," Working Papers ECARES 2020-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Desmet, Klaus & Wacziarg, Romain, 2022. "JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Kristian S. Blickle, 2020. "Pandemics Change Cities: Municipal Spending and Voter Extremism in Germany, 1918-1933," Staff Reports 921, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Toufique, M. M. K., 2020. "Why do some countries have more COVID-19 cases than others? Evidence from 70 most affected countries sans China," EconStor Preprints 222456, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Lee, Munseob & Finerman, Rachel, 2021. "COVID-19, commuting flows, and air quality," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 559, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cities; COVID-19; mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.