IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v46y2024i6p1103-1124.html

The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?

Author

Listed:
  • Aragie, Emerta
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Spielman, David J.
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, governments in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) immediately introduced strict public health measures to contain the spread of infection. The economic consequences of these measures were negative and often large in magnitude, necessitating the rapid introduction of economic relief and recovery measures to reinvigorate economic growth and safeguard affected households. Rwanda stands out among other LMICs both for its effective public health policy response and its adaptive economic policy response to COVID-19. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Rwanda, this paper assesses the economywide and welfare impacts of these policy measures and contextualizes results within the overall policy response to COVID-19. Modeling results generated at an early stage of Rwanda’s pandemic experience indicated that relief and recovery measures introduced in 2020 could mitigate COVID-19′s recessionary effects by about 0.8 % points of total GDP, help to recover about 115,000 jobs and, through cash transfers, significantly reduce income losses among poorer households, with total benefits from the measures exceeded their cost by a ratio of 2.2. These results demonstrate the widely replicable value of economywide modeling when used in a timely manner and when positioned within a policymaking process.

Suggested Citation

  • Aragie, Emerta & Diao, Xinshen & Spielman, David J. & Thurlow, James, 2024. "The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1103-1124.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:6:p:1103-1124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893824001145
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taylor, John B., 2021. "The impact of the coronavirus on economic policy and the economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 761-769.
    2. repec:idq:ictduk:17374 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hector Pollitt & Richard Lewney & Bence Kiss-Dobronyi & Xinru Lin, 2021. "Modelling the economic effects of COVID-19 and possible green recovery plans: a post-Keynesian approach," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 1257-1271, November.
    4. Mateusz Filipski & Anubhab Gupta & Justin Kagin & Arif Husain & Alejandro Grinspun & Oscar Maria Caccavale & Silvio Daidone & Valerio Giuffrida & Friederike Greb & Joseph Hooker & Susanna Sandström & , 2022. "A local general‐equilibrium emergency response modeling approach for sub‐Saharan Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 72-89, January.
    5. Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Gabriel, Sherwin & Harris, Laurence & Makrelov, Konstantin & Robinson, Sherman & Levy, Stephanie & Simbanegavi, Witness & van Seventer, Dirk & Anderson, Lillian, 2020. "Covid-19 lockdowns, income distribution, and food security: an analysis for South Africa," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105814, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Edward Balistreri & Felix Baquedano & John C. Beghin, 2022. "The impact of COVID‐19 and associated policy responses on global food security," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(6), pages 855-869, November.
    7. Emerta Aragie & Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse & James Thurlow, 2021. "The short‐term economywide impacts of COVID‐19 in Africa: Insights from Ethiopia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 152-164, April.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2020. "Seychelles: Interim Performance Update Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2020/272, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Diao, Xinshen & Rosenbach, Gracie & Spielman, David J. & Aragie, Emerta, 2021. "Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach," Rwanda SSP working papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Egger, Dennis & Miguel, Edward & Warren, Shana S. & Shenoy, Ashish & Collins, Elliott & Karlan, Dean & Parkerson, Doug & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Fink, Günther & Udry, Christopher & Walker, Michael & Hau, 2021. "Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(6), pages 1-1.
    11. Sena Amewu & Seth Asante & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2020. "The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1353-1378, December.
    12. Julius Court & Simon Maxwell, 2005. "Policy entrepreneurship for poverty reduction: bridging research and policy in international development," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 713-725.
    13. B. Lahcen & J. Brusselaers & K. Vrancken & Y. Dams & C. Silva Paes & J. Eyckmans & S. Rousseau, 2020. "Green Recovery Policies for the COVID-19 Crisis: Modelling the Impact on the Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 731-750, August.
    14. Naeher, Dominik & Narayanan, Raghavan & Ziulu, Virginia, 2024. "The relevance of development policies to confront crisis situations: World Bank’s early response to Covid-19," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 847-866.
    15. World Bank, 2021. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2021," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35647, April.
    16. Coutiño, Alfredo & Zandi, Mark, 2021. "Global loss of production capacity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 493-502.
    17. Teng, Bin & Wang, Sicong & Shi, Yufeng & Sun, Yunchuan & Wang, Wei & Hu, Wentao & Shi, Chaojun, 2022. "Economic recovery forecasts under impacts of COVID-19," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Goel, Rajeev K. & Saunoris, James W. & Goel, Srishti S., 2021. "Supply chain performance and economic growth: The impact of COVID-19 disruptions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 298-316.
    19. Diao, Xinshen & Rosenbach, Gracie & Spielman, David J. & Aragie, Emerta, 2021. "Synopsis: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on household incomes and poverty in Rwanda: A microsimulation approach," Rwanda SSP policy notes 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Aragie, Emerta & Diao, Xinshen & Robinson, Sherman & Rosenbach, Gracie & Spielman, David J. & Thurlow, James, 2021. "Assessing the economywide impacts of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s economy, agri-food system, and poverty: A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier approach," Rwanda SSP working papers 1, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    21. Kaicker, Nidhi & Gupta, Aashi & Gaiha, Raghav, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic and food security in India: Can authorities alleviate the disproportionate burden on the disadvantaged?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 963-980.
    22. Zhen Liu & Lu Lu & Thanh Tiep Le & Hayot Berk Saydaliev, 2022. "Counterfactual analysis among Covid-19: fiscal and monetary policy for green economic recovery," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 5947-5970, December.
    23. Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2015. "Prioritizing Rural Investments in Africa: A Hybrid Evaluation Approach Applied to Uganda," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 27(3), pages 407-424, July.
    24. Resnick, Danielle & Haggblade, Steven & Babu, Suresh & Hendriks, Sheryl L. & Mather, David, 2018. "The Kaleidoscope Model of policy change: Applications to food security policy in Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 101-120.
    25. Benfica, Rui & Cunguara, Benedito & Thurlow, James, 2019. "Linking agricultural investments to growth and poverty: An economywide approach applied to Mozambique," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 91-100.
    26. C. T. Vidya & K. P. Prabheesh, 2020. "Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2408-2421, August.
    27. C. T. Vidya & K. P. Prabheesh, 2020. "Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2408-2421, August.
    28. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    29. International Monetary Fund, 2020. "Rwanda: Interim Performance Update Under the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report," IMF Staff Country Reports 2020/285, International Monetary Fund.
    30. John Young, 2005. "Research, policy and practice: why developing countries are different," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 727-734.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Spielman, David J. & Mugabo, Serge & Rosenbach, Gracie & Ndikumana, Sosthene & Benimana, Gilberthe & Ingabire, Chantal, 2025. "Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giammetti, Raffaele & Papi, Luca & Teobaldelli, Désirée & Ticchi, Davide, 2022. "The optimality of age-based lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 722-738.
    2. Bonfiglio, Andrea & Coderoni, Silvia & Esposti, Roberto, 2022. "Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 252-279.
    3. Shah, Sayar Ahmad & Garg, Bhavesh, 2023. "Testing policy effectiveness during COVID-19: An NK-DSGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Marjit, Sugata & Das, Gouranga G. & Kar, Mausumi, 2025. "Immunity-driven comparative advantage and its palliative effect on social health and inequality," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 607-632.
    5. Mateusz Filipski & Anubhab Gupta & Justin Kagin & Arif Husain & Alejandro Grinspun & Oscar Maria Caccavale & Silvio Daidone & Valerio Giuffrida & Friederike Greb & Joseph Hooker & Susanna Sandström & , 2022. "A local general‐equilibrium emergency response modeling approach for sub‐Saharan Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 72-89, January.
    6. Li, Baolin & Wang, Jia & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Binsaeed, Rima H. & Li, Zeyun, 2023. "The future of Green energy: A panel study on the role of renewable resources in the transition to a Green economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    7. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Tobing, Lutzardo, 2021. "Has tourism influenced Indonesia’s current account?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 225-237.
    8. Hugo S. Gonçalves & Sérgio Moro, 2023. "On the economic impacts of COVID‐19: A text mining literature analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 375-394, February.
    9. Prabheesh, K.P. & Padhan, Rakesh & Bhat, Javed Ahmad, 2024. "Do financial markets react to emerging economies’ asset purchase program? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic period," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Cai, Xiaomei & Liu, Chan & Zheng, Shuxian & Hu, Han & Tan, Zhanglu, 2023. "Analysis on the evolution characteristics of barite international trade pattern based on complex networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Hammond, James & Siegal, Kim & Milner, Daniel & Elimu, Emmanuel & Vail, Taylor & Cathala, Paul & Gatera, Arsene & Karim, Azfar & Lee, Ja-Eun & Douxchamps, Sabine & Tu, Mai Thanh & Ouma, Emily & Lukuyu, 2022. "Perceived effects of COVID-19 restrictions on smallholder farmers: Evidence from seven lower- and middle-income countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Li, Tianyu & Yue, Xiao-Guang & Waheed, Humayun & Yıldırım, Bilal, 2023. "Can energy efficiency and natural resources foster economic growth? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2023. "COVID-19 and corporate tax avoidance: International evidence," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    15. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Anglingkusumo, Reza & Sasongko, Aryo, 2021. "US government shutdowns and Indonesian stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Du, He & Zhang, Chunguang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and natural resources commodity prices: A comparative analysis of pre- and post-pandemic quantile trends in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Zhou, Haonan & Li, Dongxin & Mustafa, Faisal & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2022. "Natural resources volatility and South Asian economies: Evaluating the role of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Su, Chi-Wei & Huang, Shi-Wen & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Does crude oil price stimulate economic policy uncertainty in BRICS?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Weikang Zhang & Isabel K. M. Yan & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemics and import demand elasticities: evidence from China’s customs data," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Rakesh Padhan & K.P. Prabheesh, 2023. "Does Financial or Trade Integration Cause Instability? Evidence from Emerging and ASEAN Economies," Working Papers DP-2023-18, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:46:y:2024:i:6:p:1103-1124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.