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The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana

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  • Amewu, Sena
  • Asante, Seth
  • Pauw, Karl
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

The objective in this paper is to estimate the economic costs of COVID-19 policies and external shocks in a developing country context, with a focus on agri-food system impacts. Ghana is selected as a case study. Ghana recorded its first two cases of COVID-19 infection on 12 March 2020. The government responded by gradually introducing social distancing measures, travel restrictions, border closures, and eventually a partial, two-week “partial” lockdown in the country’s largest metropolitan areas of Accra and Kumasi. Social distancing measures have been enforced nationwide and include bans on conferences, workshops, and sporting and religious events, as well as the closure of bars and nightclubs. All educational institutions are also closed. The partial lockdown measures in urban areas directed all residents to remain home except for essential business, prohibited non-essential inter-city travel and transport, and only essential manufacturing and services operations were permitted to continue (The Presidency 2020). At the time the lockdown was announced, Ghana’s Ministry of Finance revised its GDP growth estimate for 2020 downwards from 6.8 to 1.5 percent (MoF 2020), although the Minister warned that growth could fall further if lockdown measures were extended. The lockdown was initially extended for a third week but was officially lifted on 20 April. Social distancing measures remain in place nationwide, although a gradual easing of restrictions commenced in June. Ghana’s borders remain closed at the time of writing.

Suggested Citation

  • Amewu, Sena & Asante, Seth & Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2020. "The economic costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a simulation exercise for Ghana," GSSP working papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aragie, Emerta & Artavia, Marco & Pauw, Karl, 2019. "Strategic public spending: Scenarios and lessons for Ghana:," IFPRI discussion papers 1852, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Breisinger, Clemens & Thomas, Marcelle & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Social accounting matrices and multiplier analysis: An introduction with exercises," Food security in practice technical guide series 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Steven Haggblade & Peter Hazell, 1989. "Agricultural Technology and Farm–Nonfarm Growth Linkages," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(4), pages 345-364, December.
    4. Haggblade, Steven & Hazell, Peter, 1989. "Agricultural technology and farm-nonfarm growth linkages," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 345-364, December.
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    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Developing economies

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    2. V. Seror & G. Maradan & E.-H. Ba & S. Cortaredona & C. Berenger & Olivier L’haridon & C. Sokhna & Jocelyn Raude, 2021. "COVID-19-related attitudes, risk perceptions, preventive behaviours and economic impact in sub-Saharan African countries: Implementing a longitudinal phone-based survey protocol in rural Senegalese ho," Post-Print hal-03335734, HAL.
    3. Feuerbacher, Arndt & Flaig, Dorothee, 2021. "Global and local effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa: What role does tourism play?," Conference papers 333269, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Spencer Henson & Uma Kambhampati & Tewodaj Mogues & Wendy Olsen & Martin Prowse & Raul Ramos & John Rand & Rasjah Rasiah & Keetie Roelen & Rebecca Tiessen & O. Fiona Yap, 2020. "The Development Impacts of COVID-19 at Home and Abroad: Politics and Implications of Government Action," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1339-1352, December.
    5. Damilola Giwa-Daramola & Harvey S. James, 2023. "COVID-19 and Microeconomic Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Study on Ethiopian and Nigerian Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    6. Elizabeth Opiyo Onyango & Bernard Owusu & Jonathan S. Crush, 2023. "COVID-19 and Urban Food Security in Ghana during the Third Wave," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Zhiwen Li & Oswin Aganda Anaba & Zhiqiang Ma & Mingxing Li, 2021. "Ghanaian SMEs Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evaluating the Influence of Entrepreneurial Orientation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, January.
    8. Kudaisi, Bosede Victoria & Olomola, P.A., 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on Food Intake in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(3), June.
    9. Hamid El Bilali & Lawali Dambo & Jacques Nanema & Sheirita Reine Fanta Tietiambou & Iro Dan Guimbo & Romaric Kiswendsida Nanema, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Agri-Food Systems in West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    10. Nxumalo, Mpumelelo Author-Name: Raju, Dhushyanth, "undated". "Structural Transformation and Labor Market Performance in Ghana," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 154568, The World Bank.
    11. Li, Baolin & Wang, Jia & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Binsaeed, Rima H. & Li, Zeyun, 2023. "The future of Green energy: A panel study on the role of renewable resources in the transition to a Green economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    12. Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2023. "Global food price volatility and inflationary pressures among developing economies," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-21, October.
    13. Christiana C. Nyarko & Michael Affam & Samuel K. Obeng, 2022. "Comparative Analysis of the Contribution of the Agricultural Sector to the Gross Domestic Product of Ghana: Before and Within COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 9(6), pages 07-11, June.
    14. Valeria Ferreira & Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez & Victor Nechifor & Emanuele Ferrari, 2022. "The role of the agricultural sector in Ghanaian development: a multiregional SAM-based analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.

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