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The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana

Author

Listed:
  • Sena Amewu

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Seth Asante

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Karl Pauw

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • James Thurlow

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana’s urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.9% during that period, while an additional 3.8 million Ghanaians temporarily became poor. Compared to the government’s revised GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2020, the model predicts a contraction of 0.6 to 6.3% for 2020, depending on the speed of the recovery. The US$200 million budgeted for Ghana’s Coronavirus Alleviation Program will close only a small part of the estimated US$ 2.3 billion GDP gap between the fast recovery scenario and government’s revised GDP trajectory.

Suggested Citation

  • Sena Amewu & Seth Asante & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2020. "The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1353-1378, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:32:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1057_s41287-020-00332-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00332-6
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    2. Swinnen, Johan & McDermott, John, 2020. "COVID-19 and global food security," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 9780896293878, Q3.
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    6. Aragie, Emerta & Diao, Xinshen & Spielman, David J. & Thurlow, James, 2024. "The economywide recovery measures in Rwanda during the COVID-19 pandemic: How useful a lesson?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1103-1124.
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    12. Amos Z. B. Flomo & Elissaios Papyrakis & Natascha Wagner, 2023. "Evaluating the economic effects of the Ebola virus disease in Liberia: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1478-1504, August.
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    16. Evans Tindana Awuni & Daniele Malerba & Babette Never, 2023. "Understanding Vulnerability to Poverty, COVID-19’s Effects, and Implications for Social Protection: Insights from Ghana," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 23(3), pages 246-274, July.
    17. Feuerbacher, Arndt & Flaig, Dorothee, 2021. "Global and local effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa: What role does tourism play?," Conference papers 333269, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Spencer Henson & Uma Kambhampati & Tewodaj Mogues & Wendy Olsen & Martin Prowse & Raul Ramos & John Rand & Rasjah Rasiah & Keetie Roelen & Rebecca Tiessen & O. Fiona Yap, 2020. "The Development Impacts of COVID-19 at Home and Abroad: Politics and Implications of Government Action," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1339-1352, December.
    19. Zhiwen Li & Oswin Aganda Anaba & Zhiqiang Ma & Mingxing Li, 2021. "Ghanaian SMEs Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evaluating the Influence of Entrepreneurial Orientation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, January.
    20. Emerta Aragie & Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse & James Thurlow, 2021. "The short‐term economywide impacts of COVID‐19 in Africa: Insights from Ethiopia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 152-164, April.
    21. Li, Baolin & Wang, Jia & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Binsaeed, Rima H. & Li, Zeyun, 2023. "The future of Green energy: A panel study on the role of renewable resources in the transition to a Green economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    22. Williams Kwasi Peprah & Isaac Anowuo & Ebenezer Owusu-Yeboah & Daniel Adofo Kwakye Ameyaw & Lucile Sabas, 2024. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Ghana’s Economy: A Deep Dive into Economic Indicators," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 145-152, October.
    23. Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2023. "Global food price volatility and inflationary pressures among developing economies," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-21, October.
    24. Valeria Ferreira & Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez & Victor Nechifor & Emanuele Ferrari, 2022. "The role of the agricultural sector in Ghanaian development: a multiregional SAM-based analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.

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