Mathematical modeling of the South African land redistribution for development policy
The ineffectiveness of policy advice in most African countries could be attributed, amongst others, to the problem of scientists not being able to present or communicate a holistic solutions to policy challenges. As a result, the potential and actual consequences of policies are seldom indicated. It may be demanding to use a more comprehensive and quantitative research method in policy analysis because of limited resources to integrate technical, biophysical with the socio-economic and political variables when analysing policy effects. To exemplify this phenomenon, a forward-looking and prescriptive economic analysis that is being widely used for ex-ante policy analyses was used to make a contribution to the discussion on land redistribution, which is presently not only one of the most definitive political and development issues, but perhaps the most intractable in South Africa. The study develops and uses a mathematical model for regionalised farm-level resource use and output supply response to show that the current policy requires more economic imperatives, as it tends towards smallholder agriculture that has elements of low capital threshold trap. After 30% of the farmland will have been transferred from the large farm type to settle more units of small farm type by 2015, the decrease in the number of large farm units from about 8531 units in the base year to about 7112 farm units will lead to a decline in crop and animal product supplies. Such declines (about 15.3%) will overwhelm the increase of more than 1600% in supplies as a result of increased small farm units. Given the challenges of a free market and the fact that the current farm settlement arrangement lacks appreciable efficiency, the study prescribes land redistribution strategies that consider efficiency along with equity. Taking size as an indication of efficiency, an increase in technical progress at 1, 5 and 10% is expected to shift the supply curves to the right for less risky crop and animal enterprises meaning having more farmland, which may imply reduced lack of capital constraints would not necessarily imply a general increase in all the production activities because of relative risks in revenues. The study however, suggests that agricultural land can act as a safety net for the poor, where the efficiency argument does not hold.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Mosley & Abrar Suleiman, 2007.
"Aid, Agriculture and Poverty in Developing Countries,"
Review of Development Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 139-158, February.
- Paul Mosley & Abrar Suleiman, 2005. "Aid, agriculture and poverty in developing countries," Working Papers 2005010, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2005.
- Rutstrom, E. Elisabet & Redmond, Willie J., 1997. "A quantification of lobbying benefits with an application to the common agricultural policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 635-659, December.
- Storm, Servaas, 1994. "The macroeconomic impact of agricultural policy: A CGE analysis for India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-95, February.
- Stifel, David C. & Randrianarisoa, Jean-Claude, 2006. "Agricultural policy in Madagascar: A seasonal multi-market model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 1023-1027, December.
- Kilkenny, Maureen & Robinson, Sherman, 1990.
"Computable general equilibrium analysis of agricultural liberalization: Factor mobility and macro closure,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 527-556.
- Kilkenny, Maureen & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Agricultural Liberalization: Factor Mobility and Macro Closure," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11124, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Just, Richard E., 1993. "Discovering Production and Supply Relationships: Present Status and Future Opportunities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(01), April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:841-855. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.