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Price Incentives, Non-Price Factors, And Agricultural Production In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cointegration Analysis

  • Thiele, Rainer

This paper deals with the question of how responsive farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are to changes in incentives. Employing Johansen's multivariate cointegration approach and covering the period 1965-99, it investigates for ten selected SSA countries the long-run effect of pricing policies,macroeconomic distortions, and certain non-price factors on agricultural production. I turns out that - in those cases where cointegration relationships are found - estimated supply elasticities tend to lie between 0.20 and 0.50. Among the non-price factors, drought episodes have significantly impaired agricultural growth in six out of ten sample countries. Technical progress as measured by a simple deterministic trend has only had a minor impact on output.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/25901
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Paper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa with number 25901.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae03:25901
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  1. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
  2. Coeymans, Juan Eduardo & Mundlak, Yair, 1993. "Sectoral growth in Chile: 1962-82," Research reports 95, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Mamingi, Nlandu, 1997. "The impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply: a synthesis of available results," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(1), March.
  4. Andrew McKay & Oliver Morrissey & Charlotte Vaillant, 1999. "Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 107-123.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  7. Thiele, Rainer, 2000. "Estimating the aggregate agricultural supply response: a survey of techniques and results for developing countries," Kiel Working Papers 1016, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  8. R. L. Voortman & B. G. J. S. Sonneveld & M. A. Keyzer, 2000. "African Land Ecology: Opportunities and Constraints for Agricultural Development," CID Working Papers 37, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  9. Thiele, Rainer, 2002. "The bias against agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Has it survived 20 years of structural adjustment programs?," Kiel Working Papers 1102, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
  12. Schiff, Maurice & Montenegro, Claudio E, 1997. "Aggregate Agricultural Supply Response in Developing Countries: A Survey of Selected Issues," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 393-410, January.
  13. Marc Nerlove, 1979. "The Dynamics of Supply: Retrospect and Prospect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 874-888.
  14. Anders Danielson, 2002. "Agricultural Supply Response in Tanzania: Has Adjustment Really Worked?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 98-112.
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