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Estimating the aggregate agricultural supply response: a survey of techniques and results for developing countries

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  • Thiele, Rainer

Abstract

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper discusses the different approaches which may be employed to quantify the agricultural supply response. It turns out that none of these approaches is likely to deliver unbiased estimates. While in cross-country regressions the problem of unobserved country characteristics cannot be fully eliminated, time-series estimations tend to suffer from the Lucas critique. Any comprehensive empirical analysis should thus rely on more than one technique in order to check the robustness of results.

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  • Thiele, Rainer, 2000. "Estimating the aggregate agricultural supply response: a survey of techniques and results for developing countries," Kiel Working Papers 1016, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1016
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    Cited by:

    1. Rainer Thiele, 2003. "Price Incentives, Non‐price Factors and Agricultural Production in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Cointegration Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 15(2‐3), pages 425-438.
    2. Johnson, Michael E. & Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena, 2013. "Assessing the potential and policy alternatives for achieving rice competitiveness and growth in Nigeria:," IFPRI discussion papers 1301, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Amina Al Naabi & Shekar Bose, 2020. "Do Regulatory Measures Necessarily Affect Oman’s Seafood Export-Supply?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, August.
    5. Mofya-Mukuka, Rhoda & Abdulai, Awudu, 2012. "Supply Response of Export Crops in Zambia: The Case of Coffee," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 123556, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    6. Mesay Yami & Ferdi Meyer & Rashid Hassan, 2020. "The impact of production shocks on maize markets in Ethiopia: implications for regional trade and food security," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    7. Thiele, Rainer, 2002. "The bias against agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Has it survived 20 years of structural adjustment programs?," Kiel Working Papers 1102, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Suleiman Abrar & Oliver Morrissey & Tony Rayner, 2004. "Crop‐Level Supply Response by Agro‐Climatic Region in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 289-311, July.
    9. Antony, Nyerere, 2016. "Determinants Of Rice Supply In Tanzania," Research Theses 276426, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    10. Olubode-Awosola, O.O. & Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeju & Jooste, Andre, 2006. "Vector error correction modelling of Nigerian agricultural supply response," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 45(4), pages 1-16, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-country regressions; Nerlove method; co-integration; dynamic general equilibrium analysis; agricultural supply response;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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