IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joepsy/v33y2012i1p206-214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The triumph of hope over disappointment: A note on the utility value of good health expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Foster, Gigi
  • Frijters, Paul
  • Johnston, David W.

Abstract

In this paper, we present and test the empirical implications of competing theories about how expectations of outcomes affect utility. In the first utility formulation, which is consistent with particular interpretations of disappointment, prospect theory and regret theory, individuals receive negative utility from outcomes that were worse than expected. This directly implies that expectations themselves enter utility negatively. The second utility formulation incorporates anticipatory savoring, where positive expectations about the future directly lead to more utility today. We test which of these formulations best explains actual connections between health and welfare over time, using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. Estimated coefficients from fixed-effects ordered logit models support a strong positive utility impact of positive expectations: expecting good health in the future increases happiness now. Our results are one argument for benevolent health care providers to allow individuals to maintain unrealistically positive expectations about the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul & Johnston, David W., 2012. "The triumph of hope over disappointment: A note on the utility value of good health expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 206-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:206-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joep.2011.09.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167487011001565
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.joep.2011.09.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2005. "Optimal Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1092-1118, September.
    2. Christian Gollier & Alexander Muermann, 2010. "Optimal Choice and Beliefs with Ex Ante Savoring and Ex Post Disappointment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1272-1284, August.
    3. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    4. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
    5. Koszegi, Botond, 2003. "Health anxiety and patient behavior," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1073-1084, November.
    6. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1982. "Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 805-824, December.
    7. Lia C.G. Verhoef & Anton F.J. De Haan & Willem A.J. Van Daal, 1994. "Risk Attitude in Gambles with Years of Life," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 14(2), pages 194-200, April.
    8. Nicole Watson & Mark Wooden, 2004. "The HILDA Survey Four Years On," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 37(3), pages 343-349, September.
    9. Alex Michalos & Bruno Zumbo & Anita Hubley, 2000. "Health and the Quality of Life," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 245-286, September.
    10. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2004. "The supply of information by a concerned expert," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 487-505, July.
    11. Dhami, Sanjit & al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2007. "Why do people pay taxes? Prospect theory versus expected utility theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 171-192, September.
    12. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-686, May.
    13. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-684, September.
    15. Andrew E. Clark & Paul Frijters & Michael A. Shields, 2008. "Relative Income, Happiness, and Utility: An Explanation for the Easterlin Paradox and Other Puzzles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 95-144, March.
    16. Koszegi, Botond & Rabin, Matthew, 2008. "Choices, situations, and happiness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(8-9), pages 1821-1832, August.
    17. Frijters, Paul & Liu, Amy Y.C. & Meng, Xin, 2012. "Are optimistic expectations keeping the Chinese happy?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 159-171.
    18. Sylvie M. C. van Osch & Wilbert B. van den Hout & Anne M. Stiggelbout, 2006. "Exploring the Reference Point in Prospect Theory: Gambles for Length of Life," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 26(4), pages 338-346, July.
    19. David E. Bell, 1985. "Disappointment in Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(1), pages 1-27, February.
    20. Leslie I. Boden & Monica Galizzi, 2003. "Income Losses of Women and Men Injured at Work," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(3).
    21. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2009. "Reference-Dependent Consumption Plans," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 909-936, June.
    22. John A. List, 2004. "Neoclassical Theory Versus Prospect Theory: Evidence from the Marketplace," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(2), pages 615-625, March.
    23. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79.
    24. Lixin Cai & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 241-261, March.
    25. Groot, Wim, 2000. "Adaptation and scale of reference bias in self-assessments of quality of life," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 403-420, May.
    26. Senik, Claudia, 2008. "Is man doomed to progress?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 140-152, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Hope keeps people happy and healthy so dont always tell the truth
      by Paul Frijters in Club Troppo on 2012-05-02 04:36:35
    2. Lying politicians, part I: Why do they do it?
      by Paul Frijters in Club Troppo on 2012-10-29 06:21:01
    3. Hope keeps people happy and healthy so dont always tell the truth
      by Paul Frijters in Core Economics on 2012-05-02 04:39:29
    4. Lying politicians, part I: Why do they do it?
      by Paul Frijters in Core Economics on 2012-10-29 06:21:05
    5. Hope keeps people happy and healthy so dont always tell the truth
      by Paul Frijters in Core Economics on 2012-05-02 04:39:29

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Prati & Claudia Senik, 2020. "Feeling good or feeling better?," Working Papers halshs-02545228, HAL.
    2. Au, N. & Johnston, D. W., 2013. "An econometric analysis of self-assessed health: what does it mean and what is it hiding?," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 13/31, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Emma Pleeging & Martijn Burger & Job Exel, 2021. "The Relations between Hope and Subjective Well-Being: a Literature Overview and Empirical Analysis," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 1019-1041, June.
    4. Tufan Ekici & Selda Koydemir, 2016. "Income Expectations and Happiness: Evidence from British Panel Data," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 539-552, June.
    5. Efstratia Arampatzi & Martijn Burger & Spyridon Stavropoulos & Louis Tay, 2020. "The Role of Positive Expectations for Resilience to Adverse Events: Subjective Well-Being Before, During and After the Greek Bailout Referendum," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 965-995, March.
    6. Foster, Gigi & Frijters, Paul, 2014. "The formation of expectations: Competing theories and new evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 66-81.
    7. Giorgetta, Cinzia & Zeelenberg, Marcel & Ferlazzo, Fabio & D’Olimpio, Francesca, 2012. "Cultural variation in the role of responsibility in regret and disappointment: The Italian case," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 726-737.
    8. Bahadır Dursun & Resul Cesur, 2016. "Transforming lives: the impact of compulsory schooling on hope and happiness," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 911-956, July.
    9. Emma Pleeging & Martijn Burger & Job Exel, 2021. "Hope Mediates the Relation between Income and Subjective Well-Being," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 2075-2102, June.
    10. Frijters, Paul & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A. & Sinha, Kompal, 2015. "A lifecycle perspective of stock market performance and wellbeing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 237-250.
    11. Au, Nicole & Johnston, David W., 2014. "Self-assessed health: What does it mean and what does it hide?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 21-28.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Florian Zimmermann, 2015. "Clumped or Piecewise? Evidence on Preferences for Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 740-753, April.
    2. Macera, Rosario, 2014. "Dynamic beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2018. "The Impact of Health-Related Emotions on Belief Formation and Behavior," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 405-427, May.
    4. Jacobs Martin, 2016. "Accounting for Changing Tastes: Approaches to Explaining Unstable Individual Preferences," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 67(2), pages 121-183, August.
    5. Coutts, Alexander, 2019. "Testing models of belief bias: An experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 549-565.
    6. Chen, Si, 2012. "Optimistic versus Pessimistic--Optimal Judgemental Bias with Reference Point," MPRA Paper 50693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Marta Barazzetta, 2015. "The asymmetric effect of expectations on subjective well-being," Working Papers 374, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    8. Emma Pleeging & Martijn Burger & Job Exel, 2021. "Hope Mediates the Relation between Income and Subjective Well-Being," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 2075-2102, June.
    9. Jouini, Elyès & Karehnke, Paul & Napp, Clotilde, 2018. "Stereotypes, underconfidence and decision-making with an application to gender and math," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 34-45.
    10. Manel Baucells & Silvia Bellezza, 2017. "Temporal Profiles of Instant Utility During Anticipation, Event, and Recall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(3), pages 729-748, March.
    11. Paolo Guasoni & Gur Huberman & Dan Ren, 2020. "Shortfall aversion," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 869-920, July.
    12. van Winden, Frans & Krawczyk, Michal & Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2011. "Investment, resolution of risk, and the role of affect," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 918-939.
    13. Klaus Wälde, 2016. "Emotion Research in Economics," CESifo Working Paper Series 5982, CESifo.
    14. Marta Barazzetta & Simon Appleton & Trudy Owens, 2020. "Hedonic Adaptation to Treatment: Evidence from a Medical Intervention," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 613-629, March.
    15. Macera, Rosario, 2018. "Intertemporal incentives under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 551-594.
    16. Tianyang Wang & Robert G. Schwebach & Sriram V. Villupuram, 2022. "Reference point formation: Does the market whisper in the background?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 384-421, June.
    17. Enrico G. De Giorgi & Thierry Post, 2011. "Loss Aversion with a State-Dependent Reference Point," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1094-1110, June.
    18. Jong-Hee Hahn & Jinwoo Kim & Sang-Hyun Kim & Jihong Lee, 2018. "Price discrimination with loss averse consumers," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(3), pages 681-728, May.
    19. Fırat Yaman & Patricia Cubí-Mollá & Sergiu Ungureanu, 2023. "Which Decision Theory Describes Life Satisfaction Best? Evidence from Annual Panel Data," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 893-916, March.
    20. Daniele Pennesi, 2020. "Identity and information acquisition," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 610, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral economics; Optimism; Micro-econometrics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:206-214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.