IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v27y2023ics1703494922000408.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric spillover effects of Covid-19 on the performance of the Islamic finance industry: A wave analysis and forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Ghouse, Ghulam
  • Bhatti, Muhammad Ishaq
  • Aslam, Aribah
  • Ahmad, Nawaz

Abstract

This paper investigates the spillover effects of the waves of Covid-19 that affected the performance of the Islamic financial sector index (KMI 30) concerning Pakistan's stock exchange. The daily data is used on confirmed registered cases of Covid-19 and the KMI 30 stock prices from February 2020 to June 2022. The data is distributed into five segments on the basis of Covid-19 waves. The asymmetric GJR-GARCH is used to capture the effect of Covid-19 during each wave and E-GARCH is used to see the positive and negative impacts of Covid-19 on KMI through spillover effects. The E-GARCH model also serves to forecast the conditional variance. The Chow structural break point and Bai and Perron tests identify the structural breaks in each wave. Results of structural break testing confirm the presence breaks in each wave. Meanwhile volatility modeling results indicate there is an asymmetric effect in the return series. The E-GARCH model results reveal that there is return and volatility spillover effect from Covid-19 to KMI 30 in each wave. In future the conditional volatility remains less than the expected volatility as predicted by the forecasting statistics. We respond to policy calls by sharing our novel research in not only combating, but also assisting the required urgency of planning for future of Covid-19 outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghouse, Ghulam & Bhatti, Muhammad Ishaq & Aslam, Aribah & Ahmad, Nawaz, 2023. "Asymmetric spillover effects of Covid-19 on the performance of the Islamic finance industry: A wave analysis and forecasting," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:27:y:2023:i:c:s1703494922000408
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2022.e00280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494922000408
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2022.e00280?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    2. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Ho Thuy Tien & Ngo Thai Hung, 2022. "Volatility spillover effects between oil and GCC stock markets: a wavelet-based asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation approach," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(6), pages 1127-1149, March.
    4. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    5. Ho Thuy Tien & Ngo Thai Hung, 2022. "Volatility spillover effects between oil and GCC stock markets: a wavelet-based asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation approach," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(6), pages 1127-1149, March.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    7. Zehri, Chokri, 2021. "Stock market comovements: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    8. Fetzer, Thiemo & Witte, Marc & Hensel, Lukas & Jachimowicz, Jon M. & Haushofer, Johannes & Ivchenko, Andriy & Caria, Stefano & Elena Reutskaja, & Roth, Christopher & Fiorin, Stefano & Gomez, Margarita, 2020. "Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 472, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Heise, Arne, 2022. "Fiscal policy after the crisis: What role for fiscal policy in times of crisis, low interest rates and high public debts?," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 92, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    10. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Nammouri, Hela & Chlibi, Souhir & Labidi, Oussama, 2022. "Co-movements in sector price indexes during the COVID-19 crisis: Evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    12. Voulgaris, Fotini & Lemonakis, Christos, 2014. "Competitiveness and profitability: The case of chemicals, pharmaceuticals and plastics," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 46-57.
    13. Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese & Pichler, Stefan, 2014. "The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-19.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(6), pages 1537-1584.
    15. Ning Zhang & Aiqun Wang & Naveed-Ul- Haq & Safia Nosheen, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 shocks on the volatility of stock markets in technologically advanced countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 2191-2216, December.
    16. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    17. Alessandro Rebucci & Jonathan S. Hartley & Daniel Jiménez, 2022. "An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 291-322, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Ghulam Ghouse & Saud Ahmed Khan, 2017. "Tracing dynamic linkages and spillover effect between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 29-42, November.
    19. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Mahi, Masnun & Hassan, M. Kabir & Bhuiyan, Abul Bashar, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets: Conventional vs. Islamic indices using wavelet-based multi-timescales analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    21. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursua & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic - Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8166, CESifo.
    22. Ghulam Ghouse & Saud Ahmed Khan & Muhammad Arshad, 2019. "Volatility Modelling and Dynamic Linkages between Pakistani and Leading Foreign Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 265-282.
    23. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ghulam Ghouse & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti & Muhammad Hassam Shahid, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19, Political, and Financial Events on the Performance of Commercial Banking Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, April.
    25. Abbass, Kashif & Sharif, Arshian & Song, Huaming & Ali, Malik Tayyab & Khan, Farina & Amin, Nabila, 2022. "Do geopolitical oil price risk, global macroeconomic fundamentals relate Islamic and conventional stock market? Empirical evidence from QARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    26. Anton Gollwitzer & Cameron Martel & William J. Brady & Philip Pärnamets & Isaac G. Freedman & Eric D. Knowles & Jay J. Van Bavel, 2020. "Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1186-1197, November.
    27. Ghulam Ghouse & Aribah Aslam & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2021. "Role of Islamic Banking during COVID-19 on Political and Financial Events: Application of Impulse Indicator Saturation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, October.
    28. Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Wiederholt, Mirko, 2018. "Lack of preparation for rare events," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 35-47.
    29. Ghouse, Ghulam & Khan, Saud Ahmed, 2017. "Tracing dynamic linkages and spillover effect between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 29-42.
    30. Kashif Ali & Muhammad Ashfaque & Adil Saleem & Judit Bárczi & Judit Sági, 2022. "Did the Islamic Stock Index Provide Shelter for Investors during the COVID-19 Crisis? Evidence from an Emerging Stock Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. hafeez, neelam & naseem naik, sadia, 2023. "Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Eruption: A Study of Selected South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 117319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Awad Asiri & Mohammed Alnemer & M. Ishaq Bhatti, 2023. "Interconnectedness of Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Indices with Returns and Volatility in Financial Assets during COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-18, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    2. Fenske, James & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Yuan, Song, 2020. "Demographic shocks and women’s labor market participation: evidence from the 1918 influenza pandemic in India," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 494, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    3. Christian Møller Dahl & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2022. "The 1918 epidemic and a V‐shaped recession: evidence from historical tax records," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 139-163, January.
    4. Carola Binder, 2020. "Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 721-730, October.
    5. Daniel de Kadt & Johan Fourie & Jan Greyling & Elie Murard & Johannes Norling, 2020. "The causes and consequences of the 1918 influenza in South Africa," Working Papers 12/2020, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    6. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 35-51.
    8. Mario F. Carillo & Tullio Jappelli, 2020. "Pandemics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy," CSEF Working Papers 568, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    9. Hanspal, Tobin & Weber, Annika & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash and its effect on household expectations," SAFE Working Paper Series 279, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic: New evidence from Germany," CFS Working Paper Series 658, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2022. "Inflation Expectations, Inflation Target Credibility and the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264094, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," Carleton Economic Papers 20-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2020.
    13. Ingar Haaland & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2023. "Designing Information Provision Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 3-40, March.
    14. Weber, Michael & Candia, Bernardo & Ropele, Tiziano & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Frache, Serafin & Meyer, Brent & Kumar, Saten & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Coibion, Olivier & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Tell Me Something I Don't Already Know: Learning in Low and High-Inflation Settings," IZA Discussion Papers 16305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
    16. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    17. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 3-39, March.
    18. Weber, Michael & D'Acunto, Francesco & Fuster, Andreas, 2021. "Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups," CEPR Discussion Papers 16563, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    20. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:27:y:2023:i:c:s1703494922000408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.