IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v38y2025ics2405851325000157.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The midstream amplifier: Risk spillovers in China's lithium supply chain from mining to batteries

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Lanyong
  • Zhu, Yongguang
  • Li, Junhui
  • Dou, Shiquan
  • Liu, Gang
  • Xu, Deyi

Abstract

The global energy transition has significantly increased the demand for lithium resources, raising market concerns about the stability of the global lithium supply chain. Understanding the relationships among different commodities within this supply chain is crucial for managing associated risks. In this study, we apply a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model to investigate the spillover effects and dynamic dependency of price volatility across the lithium supply chain. Our results reveal a high degree of systemic risk among lithium supply chains. Specifically, the risk spillover from the midstream segment to the upstream segment is the strongest and increasing, while the risk spillover to the downstream segment is the weakest and showing a downward trend. Additionally, the midstream serves as the primary net transmitter of price shocks, whereas the upstream and downstream segments more often act as net receivers. We identify two main pathways for the spillover of price shocks: one from the midstream to the upstream and then to the downstream, and another directly from the midstream to the downstream. These findings are important for mitigating the accumulation of risks within the lithium supply chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Lanyong & Zhu, Yongguang & Li, Junhui & Dou, Shiquan & Liu, Gang & Xu, Deyi, 2025. "The midstream amplifier: Risk spillovers in China's lithium supply chain from mining to batteries," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:38:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851325000157
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100471?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:38:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.