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Optimal tax policy and foreign direct investment under ambiguity

  • Asano, Takao
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    We analyze the optimal timing of an irreversible foreign direct investment by a foreign firm and the optimal tax policy by a host country under ambiguity. We derive the optimal GDP level at which the foreign firm switches from exporting to a foreign direct investment. Furthermore, we derive the optimal tax policy by the host country, and analyze the effect of an increase in ambiguity on the optimal tax policy. We show that the host country should reduce the optimal corporate tax rate from the host government's perspective in response to an increase in ambiguity. Our result is different from the one obtained by Pennings (2005) that shows that an increase in risk induces an increase in the optimal corporate tax rate.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 185-200

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:32:y:2010:i:1:p:185-200
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    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2007. "Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 668-694, September.
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    3. Pennings, Enrico, 2005. "How to maximize domestic benefits from foreign investments: the effect of irreversibility and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 873-889, May.
    4. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
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    8. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-93, July.
    10. Buckley, Peter J & Casson, Mark, 1981. "The Optimal Timing of a Foreign Direct Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 75-87, March.
    11. Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
    12. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
    13. Mackie-Mason, Jeffrey K., 1990. "Some nonlinear tax effects on asset values and investment decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 301-327, August.
    14. Takao Asano, 2010. "Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy Under Ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 173-196, October.
    15. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2006. "Recursive Smooth Ambiguity Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 17, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2008.
    16. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
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