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Four decades of terms-of-trade booms: A metric of income windfall

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  • Adler, Gustavo
  • Magud, Nicolas E.

Abstract

We study Latin America's history of terms-of-trade booms during the period 1970–2012 through the prisms of a metric that quantifies the associated exogenous income shock (‘income windfall’). We also document saving patterns during these episodes and propose a measure of how much of the income windfall was saved (i.e., the marginal saving rate). We find that Latin America's terms-of-trade shock of the last decade has not differed much in magnitude from that observed during the 1970s, but the associated income windfall has been substantially larger. While aggregate saving increased more than in past episodes, the share of the windfall saved has been lower, suggesting that greater aggregate savings reflect mainly the sheer size of the exogenous income shock rather than a greater effort to save it.

Suggested Citation

  • Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E., 2015. "Four decades of terms-of-trade booms: A metric of income windfall," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 162-192.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:55:y:2015:i:c:p:162-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.02.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    2. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2017. "Saving behaviour under terms-of-trade uncertainty: evidence from hidden cointegration approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 135-150, May.
    3. Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 16/27, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Carlos Vegh & Daniel Lederman & Federico R. Bennett, "undated". "Leaning Against the Wind," World Bank Other Operational Studies 26364, The World Bank.
    5. Cordella, Tito & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "What makes a currency procyclical? An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 240-259.
    6. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Luis I. Jacome H. & Nicolas E Magud & Alejandro M. Werner, 2016. "Central Banking in Latin America; The Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 16/197, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Luis N. Lanteri, 2015. "Efectos de la enfermedad holandesa ('Dutch disease'). Alguna evidencia para Argentina," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 18(2), pages 187-209, December.
    8. Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Werner, Alejandro, 2018. "Terms-of-trade cycles and external adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 103-122.
    9. Medina, Juan Pablo & Soto, Claudio, 2016. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy in a commodity exporting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 335-351.
    10. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "Exportaciones de manufacturas de origen industrial (moi) en Argentina. Manufactured exports of industrial origin (moi) in Argentina," Economia Coyuntural,Revista de temas de perspectivas y coyuntura, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales 'Jose Ortiz Mercado' (IIES-JOM), Facultad de Ciencias Economicas, Administrativas y Financieras, Universidad Autonoma Gabriel Rene Moreno, vol. 1(3), pages 1-22.
    11. André Roncaglia De Carvalho & - André M. Marques, 2018. "Economic Development And Inflation: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 41, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Luis N. Lanteri, 2017. "Shocks de precios externos y su impacto en el consumo y en la inversión. Alguna evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, December.
    13. Liu, Kai & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2015. "Short- and Long-Run Fiscal Elasticities: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 65950, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Swiston, Andrew, 2019. "A crude shock: Explaining the short-run impact of the 2014–16 oil price decline across exporters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 481-493.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade; Windfall; Income; Gross domestic income; Aggregate saving; Saving rate;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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