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Anchoring bias in the TARP warrant negotiations

  • Wilson, Linus
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    This paper finds that banks that offered lower opening bids were rewarded with significantly lower warrant repurchase prices in transactions that raised $2.856 billion in 2009. These results were scaled by third-party consultants’ and the Congressional Oversight Panel's estimates of the warrants’ value. In contrast to the experimental psychology studies on anchoring bias in negotiations, these are real transactions involving large sums of money. This paper finds that larger banks paid significantly higher prices after controlling for other factors, and the U.S. Treasury obtained better prices over time. The results on anchoring bias are strong even after controlling for bank managers’ potential informational advantages over U.S. Treasury negotiators.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619511000178
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economics and Business.

    Volume (Year): 64 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 63-76

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:64:y:2012:i:1:p:63-76
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconbus

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    1. Phillip Swagel, 2009. "The Financial Crisis: An Inside View," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 1-78.
    2. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    3. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    4. Northcraft, Gregory B. & Neale, Margaret A., 1987. "Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring-and-adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 84-97, February.
    5. Savin, N Eugene & White, Kenneth J, 1977. "The Durbin-Watson Test for Serial Correlation with Extreme Sample Sizes or Many Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1989-96, November.
    6. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
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