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Macroeconomic effects and frailties in the resolution of non-performing loans

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  • Betz, Jennifer
  • Krüger, Steffen
  • Kellner, Ralf
  • Rösch, Daniel

Abstract

Resolution of non-performing loans is a key determinant of bank credit default losses. This paper analyzes macroeconomic and systematic frailty effects of the default resolution time for a sample of 17,395 defaulted bank loans in USA, Great Britain, and Canada. We find that frailties have a huge impact on the resolution times. In a representative sample portfolio, median resolution times more than double in a recession when compared to an expansion. This leads to highly skewed distributions of losses and considerable systematic risk of the bank portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Betz, Jennifer & Krüger, Steffen & Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects and frailties in the resolution of non-performing loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:112:y:2020:i:c:s0378426617302224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.09.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jagdeep Kaur Brar & Antoine Kornprobst & Willard John Braun & Matthew Davison & Warren Hare, 2021. "A Case Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Loan Credit Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Obiora, Sandra Chukwudumebi & Zeng, Yong & Li, Qiang & Liu, Hao & Adjei, Peter Darko & Csordas, Tamas, 2022. "The effect of economic growth on banking system performance: An interregional and comparative study of Sub-Saharan Africa and developed economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    4. Michael Adusei & Ngozi Adeleye & Beatrice Sarpong‐Danquah, 2022. "Legal cost of contract enforcement and nonperforming loans: Is credit information sharing relevant?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2501-2514, September.
    5. Kellner, Ralf & Nagl, Maximilian & Rösch, Daniel, 2022. "Opening the black box – Quantile neural networks for loss given default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank loans; Default resolution time; Credit risk; Systematic effects; Latent factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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