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An Estimation of the Hazard Rate of Firms under Chapter 11 Protection

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  • Bandopadhyaya, Arindam

Abstract

The instantaneous probability (hazard rate) of a firm's exit from Chapter 11 protection is examined. Using the Weibull duration model, the effect of various regressors and the effect of the time a firm spends under Chapter 11 protection on this instantaneous probability is analyzed. I show that the hazard increases significantly under Chapter 11. Among the variables chosen, the interest burden of the firm and the capacity utilization of the firm's industry significantly increase the hazard. Other firm-specific variables like the long-term debt-to-assets ratio and the number of shares outstanding and economy wide variables, like the prime interest rate and the gross national product growth rate have no significant effect on the hazard. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

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  • Bandopadhyaya, Arindam, 1994. "An Estimation of the Hazard Rate of Firms under Chapter 11 Protection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 346-350, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:76:y:1994:i:2:p:346-50
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    1. Sofie Balcaen & Sophie Manigart & Hubert Ooghe, 2011. "From distress to exit: determinants of the time to exit," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, pages 407-446.
    2. Micola, Augusto Rupérez & Banal-Estañol, Albert & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Incentives and coordination in vertically related energy markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, pages 381-393.
    3. Skuras, Dimitris & Tzelepin, Dimitris, 1999. "The Effects of Regional Policy Incentives on Firm Profitability and Survival," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa210, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Daniel M. Covitz & Song Han & Beth Anne Wilson, 2006. "Are longer bankruptcies really more costly?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Bonfim, Diana & Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine, 2012. "What happens after corporate default? Stylized facts on access to credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2007-2025.
    6. Yang, Qing Gong & Temple, Paul, 2012. "Reform and competitive selection in China: An analysis of firm exits," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 286-299.
    7. Dewaelheyns, Nico & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 2009. "Filtering speed in a Continental European reorganization procedure," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 375-387, December.
    8. Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Jaggia, Sanjiv, 2001. "An analysis of second time around bankruptcies using a split-population duration model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 201-218.
    9. G. Donald Jud & Terry G. Seaks & Daniel T. Winkler, 1996. "Time on the Market: The Impact of Residential Brokerage," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 447-458.
    10. Maria H. Kim & Graham Partington, 2015. "Dynamic forecasts of financial distress of Australian firms," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(1), pages 135-160, February.
    11. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
    12. Lillian Cheung & Amnon Levy, 1998. "An integrative analysis of business bankruptcy in Australia," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 149-167, June.
    13. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam, 1996. "The determinants of the duration of commercial bank debt renegotiation for sovereigns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 673-685, May.
    14. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Recovery determinants of distressed banks: Regulators, market discipline, or the environment?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    15. Atanu Saha & Lynette Hilton, 2000. "A New Approach to Estimating Damages in Mass Torts," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 27-46.
    16. Baek, In-Mee, 2001. "The determinants of the survival of realigned exchange rate arrangements in emerging economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 461-475.
    17. Orbe Lizundia, Jesús María & Ferreira García, María Eva & Núñez Antón, Vicente Alfredo, 2001. "Analysis of Length of Time Spent in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy," BILTOKI 2001-01, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    18. Ela Glowicka, 2006. "Effectiveness of Bailouts in the EU," CIG Working Papers SP II 2006-05, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    19. Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
    20. Orbe, Jesus & Ferreira, Eva & Nunez-Anton, Vicente, 2001. "Modelling the duration of firms in Chapter 11 bankruptcy using a flexible model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 35-42, April.

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