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Merger performance under uncertain efficiency gains

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  • Amir, Rabah
  • Diamantoudi, Effrosyni
  • Xue, Licun

Abstract

In view of the uncertainty over the ability of merging firms to achieve efficiency gains, we model the post-merger situation as a Cournot oligopoly wherein the outsiders face uncertainty about the merged entity's final cost. At the Bayesian equilibrium, a bilateral merger is profitable provided the non-merged firms sufficiently believe that the merger will generate large enough efficiency gains, even if ex post none actually materialize. The effects of the merger on market performance are shown to follow similar threshold rules. The findings are broadly consistent with stylized facts. An extensive welfare analysis is conducted, bringing out the key role of efficiency gains and the different implications of consumer and social welfare standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Amir, Rabah & Diamantoudi, Effrosyni & Xue, Licun, 2009. "Merger performance under uncertain efficiency gains," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 264-273, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:27:y:2009:i:2:p:264-273
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    Cited by:

    1. Jovanovic, Dragan & Wey, Christian, 2012. "An equilibrium analysis of efficiency gains from mergers," DICE Discussion Papers 64, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    2. Kai A.Konrad, 2010. "Merger Profitability in Industries with Brand Portfolios and Loyal Customers," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, pages 5-26.
    3. Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2014. "Dynamics of mergers, bifurcation and chaos: A new framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 293-307.
    4. Banal-Estanol, Albert & Macho-Stadler, Ines & Seldeslachts, Jo, 2008. "Endogenous mergers and endogenous efficiency gains: The efficiency defence revisited," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-91, January.
    5. Albert Banal-Estañol & Ines Macho-Stadler & Jo Seldeslachts, 2003. "Mergers, Investment Decisions and Internal Organisation," CESifo Working Paper Series 944, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Borla, Stefania, 2012. "Spatial competition and merging incentives when firms produce complements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 221-229.
    7. Le Pape, Nicolas & Zhao, Kai, 2014. "Horizontal mergers and uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-31.
    8. Thomas Giebe & Miyu Lee, 2015. "Competitors In Merger Control: Shall They Be Merely Heard Or Also Listened To?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Emilie Dargaud, 2013. "Horizontal mergers, efficiency gains and remedies," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, pages 349-372.
    10. Joseph A. Clougherty & Tomaso Duso, 2010. "Using Rival Effects to Identify Synergies and Improve Merger Typologies," CIG Working Papers SP II 2010-13, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
    11. Sergio Currarini & Marco A. Marini, 2015. "Coalitional Approaches to Collusive Agreements in Oligopoly Games," Manchester School, University of Manchester, pages 253-287.
    12. Zhiqi Chen & Gang Li, 2017. "Do Merger Efficiencies Always Mitigate Price Increases?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    13. Berardino Cesi, 2010. "Horizontal Mergers: A Solution Of The Insiders' Dilemma," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 171-180, April.
    14. Mariana Cunha & Paula Sarmento & Hélder Vasconcelos, 2014. "Uncertain Efficiency Gains and Merger Policy," FEP Working Papers 527, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    15. Choné, Philippe & Linnemer, Laurent, 2008. "Assessing horizontal mergers under uncertain efficiency gains," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 913-929, July.
    16. Kojun Hamada, 2012. "Uncertainty and Horizontal Mergers," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 168(2), pages 252-265, June.
    17. Ding, Wei & Fan, Cuihong & Wolfstetter, Elmar G., 2013. "Horizontal mergers with synergies: Cash vs. profit-share auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 382-391.
    18. Petrakis, Emmanuel & Moreno Ruiz, Diego & Cabolis, C. & Manasakis, C., 2016. "R&D investments fostering horizontal mergers," UC3M Working papers. Economics 23280, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    19. Raffaele Fiocco & Dongyu Guo, 2015. "Mergers between regulated firms with unknown efficiency gains," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, pages 299-326.
    20. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Hüschelrath, Kai, 2012. "Airline alliances and antitrust policy: The role of efficiencies," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 76-84.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Horizontal merger Bayesian Cournot/Nash equilibrium Efficiency gains Market performance;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

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