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Horizontal mergers and uncertainty

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  • Le Pape, Nicolas
  • Zhao, Kai

Abstract

This paper analyses the profitability of horizontal mergers in a Stackelberg model and their impact on welfare when there is uncertainty about the marginal costs of the newly merged firms. The authors consider that the merging firms decide their production strategy knowing the actual value of the production cost, while outsiders are a priori uncertain about the exact amount of cost efficiency/inefficiency that will result from the merger. Nevertheless, the key element of the model is that the merged entity can signal its own cost to some rivals (outsider-followers) when it behaves as a leader; while all outsiders remain uninformed when it behaves as a follower. They show that when there is role redistribution, the merging firms always have incentives to merge, irrespective of cost uncertainty, while a merger without role redistribution is ex ante profitable if and only if uncertainty is sufficiently great. As regards the social desirability of mergers, it is found that a merger between leaders always enhances welfare if participants have incentives to merge, such that private and collective interests coincide. Nevertheless, a merger with role redistribution leads to conflict between private and collective interests.

Suggested Citation

  • Le Pape, Nicolas & Zhao, Kai, 2014. "Horizontal mergers and uncertainty," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-31.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifweej:201423
    DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gamal Atallah, 2015. "Multi-Firm Mergers with Leaders and Followers," Working Papers E1501E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    2. Mariana Cunha & Paula Sarmento & Hélder Vasconcelos, 2014. "Uncertain Efficiency Gains and Merger Policy," FEP Working Papers 527, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merger; competition authorities; uncertainty; asymmetric information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General

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