IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ijrema/v31y2014i4p356-367.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Variable selection in international diffusion models

Author

Listed:
  • Gelper, Sarah
  • Stremersch, Stefan

Abstract

Prior research comes to different conclusions as to what country characteristics drive diffusion patterns. One prime difficulty that may partially explain this divergence between studies is the sparseness of the data, in terms of the periodicity as well as the number of products and countries, in combination with the large number of potentially influential country characteristics. In face of such sparse data, scholars have used nested models, bivariate models and factor models to explore the role of country covariates. This paper uses Bayesian Lasso and Bayesian Elastic Net variable selection procedures as powerful approaches to identify the most important drivers of differences in Bass diffusion parameters across countries. We find that socio-economic and demographic country covariates (most pronouncedly so, economic wealth and education) have the strongest effect on all diffusion metrics we study. Our findings are a call for marketing scientists to devote greater attention to country covariate selection in international diffusion models, as well as to variable selection in marketing models at large.

Suggested Citation

  • Gelper, Sarah & Stremersch, Stefan, 2014. "Variable selection in international diffusion models," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 356-367.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijrema:v:31:y:2014:i:4:p:356-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2014.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167811614000469
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijresmar.2014.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Kumar & Trichy V. Krishnan, 2002. "Multinational Diffusion Models: An Alternative Framework," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 318-330, July.
    2. Roger M. Heeler & Thomas P. Hustad, 1980. "Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(10), pages 1007-1020, October.
    3. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    4. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
    5. Oliver J. Rutz & Michael Trusov & Randolph E. Bucklin, 2011. "Modeling Indirect Effects of Paid Search Advertising: Which Keywords Lead to More Future Visits?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 646-665, July.
    6. Deepa Chandrasekaran & Gerard J. Tellis, 2008. "Global Takeoff of New Products: Culture, Wealth, or Vanishing Differences?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 844-860, 09-10.
    7. Jana Eklund & Sune Karlsson, 2007. "Forecast Combination and Model Averaging Using Predictive Measures," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 329-363.
    8. Chris Hans, 2009. "Bayesian lasso regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(4), pages 835-845.
    9. Fok, Dennis & Franses, Philip Hans, 2007. "Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(2), pages 376-390, August.
    10. Hubert Gatignon & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Thomas S. Robertson, 1989. "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(3), pages 231-247.
    11. Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.
    12. Paulo Albuquerque & Bart J. Bronnenberg & Charles J. Corbett, 2007. "A Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Global Diffusion of ISO 9000 and ISO 14000 Certification," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 451-468, March.
    13. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Stremersch, S., 2012. "Dynamics in international market segmentation of new product growth," Other publications TiSEM 306086bd-670f-48d2-97d1-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Peter J. Lenk & Ambar G. Rao, 1990. "New Models from Old: Forecasting Product Adoption by Hierarchical Bayes Procedures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 42-53.
    15. Theodoros Evgeniou & Massimiliano Pontil & Olivier Toubia, 2007. "A Convex Optimization Approach to Modeling Consumer Heterogeneity in Conjoint Estimation," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 805-818, 11-12.
    16. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Stremersch, Stefan, 2012. "Dynamics in the international market segmentation of new product growth," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 81-92.
    17. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    18. Park, Trevor & Casella, George, 2008. "The Bayesian Lasso," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 681-686, June.
    19. William P. Putsis, Jr. & Sridhar Balasubramanian & Edward W. Kaplan & Subrata K. Sen, 1997. "Mixing Behavior in Cross-Country Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 354-369.
    20. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2006. "Bagging and boosting classification trees to predict churn," Other publications TiSEM d5cb664d-5859-44db-a621-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    22. Gerard J. Tellis & Stefan Stremersch & Eden Yin, 2003. "The International Takeoff of New Products: The Role of Economics, Culture, and Country Innovativeness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 188-208, October.
    23. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    24. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    25. Prasad Naik & Michel Wedel & Lynd Bacon & Anand Bodapati & Eric Bradlow & Wagner Kamakura & Jeffrey Kreulen & Peter Lenk & David Madigan & Alan Montgomery, 2008. "Challenges and opportunities in high-dimensional choice data analyses," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 201-213, December.
    26. Naik, Prasad A. & Wedel, Michel & Kamakura, Wagner, 2010. "Multi-Index Binary Response Analysis of Large Data Sets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 67-81.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yi Xiang & David Soberman & Hubert Gatignon, 2022. "The Effect of Marketing Breadth and Competitive Spread on Category Growth," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(2), pages 622-644, February.
    2. Wlömert, Nils & Papies, Dominik, 2019. "International heterogeneity in the associations of new business models and broadband Internet with music revenue and piracy," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 400-419.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    3. van Everdingen, Y.M. & Fok, D. & Stremersch, S., 2008. "Modeling Global Spill-Over of New Product Takeoff," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-067-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    4. Ashish Sood & Gareth M. James & Gerard J. Tellis, 2009. "Functional Regression: A New Model for Predicting Market Penetration of New Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(1), pages 36-51, 01-02.
    5. Chandrasekaran, Deepa & Arts, Joep W.C. & Tellis, Gerard J. & Frambach, Ruud T., 2013. "Pricing in the international takeoff of new products," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 249-264.
    6. John Hauser & Gerard J. Tellis & Abbie Griffin, 2006. "Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(6), pages 687-717, 11-12.
    7. Nikolaos E. Petridis & Georgios Digkas & Leonidas Anastasakis, 2020. "Factors affecting innovation and imitation of ICT in the agrifood sector," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 501-514, November.
    8. Laciana, Carlos E. & Rovere, Santiago L. & Podestá, Guillermo P., 2013. "Exploring associations between micro-level models of innovation diffusion and emerging macro-level adoption patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1873-1884.
    9. Swinerd, Chris & McNaught, Ken R., 2015. "Comparing a simulation model with various analytic models of the international diffusion of consumer technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 330-343.
    10. Chumnumpan, Pattarin & Shi, Xiaohui, 2019. "Understanding new products’ market performance using Google Trends," Australasian marketing journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-103.
    11. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    12. Stremersch, S. & Lemmens, A., 2008. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-026-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    13. Lemmens, Aurélie & Croux, Christophe & Stremersch, Stefan, 2012. "Dynamics in the international market segmentation of new product growth," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 81-92.
    14. Debabrata Talukdar & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ainslie, 2002. "Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 97-114, February.
    15. Jacob Goldenberg & Oded Lowengart & Daniel Shapira, 2009. "Zooming In: Self-Emergence of Movements in New Product Growth," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(2), pages 274-292, 03-04.
    16. Stefan Stremersch & Eitan Muller & Renana Peres, 2010. "Does new product growth accelerate across technology generations?," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 103-120, June.
    17. Stefan Stremersch & Aurélie Lemmens, 2009. "Sales Growth of New Pharmaceuticals Across the Globe: The Role of Regulatory Regimes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(4), pages 690-708, 07-08.
    18. Duan, Hongbo & Zhang, Gupeng & Wang, Shouyang & Fan, Ying, 2018. "Peer interaction and learning: Cross-country diffusion of solar photovoltaic technology," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-66.
    19. Meihan He & Jongsu Lee, 2020. "Social culture and innovation diffusion: a theoretically founded agent-based model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 1109-1149, September.
    20. Christophe Van den Bulte & Stefan Stremersch, 2004. "Social Contagion and Income Heterogeneity in New Product Diffusion: A Meta-Analytic Test," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(4), pages 530-544, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ijrema:v:31:y:2014:i:4:p:356-367. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/international-journal-of-research-in-marketing/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.