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Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications

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  • Fok, D.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

This paper illustrates that salient features of a panel of time series of annual citations can be captured by a Bass type diffusion model. We put forward an extended version of this diffusion model, where we consider the relation between key characteristics of the diffusion process and features of the articles. More specifically, parameters measuring citations' ceiling and the timing of peak citations are correlated with specific features of the articles like the number of pages and the number of authors. Our approach amounts to a multi-level non-linear regression for a panel of time series. We illustrate our model for citations to articles that were published in Econometrica and the Journal of Econometrics. Amongst other things, we find that more references lead to more citations and that for the Journal of Econometrics peak citations of more recent articles tend to occur later.

Suggested Citation

  • Fok, D. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Modeling the diffusion of scientific publications," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-48, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:7037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    2. Nigel Meade & Towhidul Islam, 1998. "Technological Forecasting---Model Selection, Model Stability, and Combining Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1115-1130, August.
    3. Debabrata Talukdar & K. Sudhir & Andrew Ainslie, 2002. "Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries," Marketing Science, INFORMS, pages 97-114.
    4. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kene Henkens, 2000. "What makes a Scientific Article influential?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-032/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Christophe Van den Bulte & Gary L. Lilien, 1997. "Bias and Systematic Change in the Parameter Estimates of Macro-Level Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 338-353.
    6. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
    7. Peter J. Lenk & Ambar G. Rao, 1990. "New Models from Old: Forecasting Product Adoption by Hierarchical Bayes Procedures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(1), pages 42-53.
    8. Glenn Ellison, 2002. "The Slowdown of the Economics Publishing Process," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 947-993, October.
    9. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 2005. "On the Econometrics of the Bass Diffusion Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 255-268, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Fischer & Peter Leeflang & Peter Verhoef, 2010. "Drivers of peak sales for pharmaceutical brands," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 429-460, December.
    2. Erjen van Nierop, 2009. "Why do statistics journals have low impact factors?," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(1), pages 52-62.
    3. Zeki Simsek & Ciaran Heavey & Justin J. P. Jansen, 2013. "Journal Impact as a Diffusion Process: A Conceptualization and the Case of the Journal of Management Studies," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(8), pages 1374-1407, December.
    4. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Forecasting Sales," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. Richard S. J. Tol, 2011. "Credit where credit’s due: accounting for co-authorship in citation counts," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 89(1), pages 291-299, October.
    6. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    7. Ruiz-Conde, Enar & Wieringa, Jaap E. & Leeflang, Peter S.H., 2014. "Competitive diffusion of new prescription drugs: The role of pharmaceutical marketing investment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 49-63.
    8. repec:spr:scient:v:99:y:2014:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-014-1248-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:40-:d:124296 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bornmann, Lutz & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2017. "Skewness of citation impact data and covariates of citation distributions: A large-scale empirical analysis based on Web of Science data," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 164-175.
    11. repec:spr:scient:v:113:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-017-2507-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spr:scient:v:93:y:2012:i:2:d:10.1007_s11192-012-0675-z is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Howlett, Peter, 2008. "Travelling in the social science community: assessing the impact of the Indian Green Revolution across disciplines," Economic History Working Papers 22513, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    14. Jinyoung Kim & Kanghyock Koh, 2014. "Incentives for Journal Editors," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 348-371, February.
    15. Teodora Diana Corsatea, 2010. "Measuring science: Spatial investigation of academic opportunities in Belgium," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(2), pages 373-387, June.

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