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Price causal relations between China and the world oil markets

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  • Chen, K.C.
  • Chen, Shaoling
  • Wu, Lifan

Abstract

This paper examines China's influence on the volatility of crude oil prices in the international markets. Using data from 1997-2007, we find that China has little impact on the volatility of the world crude oil markets. On the contrary, our evidence shows that the crude oil price innovations in China are significantly driven by the OPEC and US markets, which account for 42-59% of the oil price variations in total. Our results indicate that although China emerges to be an important player, it has not yet correspondingly become an oil pricing power in the world oil markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, K.C. & Chen, Shaoling & Wu, Lifan, 2009. "Price causal relations between China and the world oil markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 107-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:107-118
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    1. Peng Li & Yaofu Ouyang, 2023. "Oil price shocks and China’s consumer and entrepreneur sentiment: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2241-2271, November.
    2. Melo-Becerra & Ramos-Forero & Hector Zárate-Solano, 2015. "Sovereign bond markets and financial stability in an emerging economy: an application of directed acyclic graphs and SVAR models," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 306-319, November.
    3. Gulzar Khan & Adiqa Kiani & Ather Maqsood Ahmed, 2017. "Globalization, Endogenous Oil Price Shocks and Chinese Economic Activity," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 39-64, July-Dec.
    4. Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "How do China's oil markets affect other commodity markets both domestically and internationally?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 247-254.
    5. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven & Wen, Fenghua, 2019. "Time-varying volatility spillover between Chinese fuel oil and stock index futures markets based on a DCC-GARCH model with a semi-nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 119-143.
    6. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    7. Zhang, Qi & Di, Peng & Farnoosh, Arash, 2021. "Study on the impacts of Shanghai crude oil futures on global oil market and oil industry based on VECM and DAG models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    8. Yaxue Yan & Weijuan Liang & Banban Wang & Xiaoling Zhang, 2023. "Spillover effect among independent carbon markets: evidence from China’s carbon markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3065-3093, October.
    9. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    10. Sheng Yang & Ling-Yun He, 2015. "Oil price shocks, road transport pollution emissions and residents' health losses in China," Papers 1512.01742, arXiv.org.
    11. Malin Song & Kuangnan Fang & Jing Zhang & Jianbin Wu, 2019. "The Co-movement Between Chinese Oil Market and Other Main International Oil Markets: A DCC-MGARCH Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 1303-1318, December.
    12. Wu, Gang & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2014. "Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-86.
    13. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Bhattacharya, Mita, 2021. "Movements of oil prices and exchange rates in China and India: New evidence from wavelet-based, non-linear, autoregressive distributed lag estimations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    14. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Dynamic transmission mechanisms in global crude oil prices: Estimation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1181-1193.
    15. Liu, Li & Chen, Ching-Cheng & Wan, Jieqiu, 2013. "Is world oil market “one great pool”?: An example from China's and international oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 364-373.
    16. Ludwig, Markus, 2012. "The Visible Hand: National Oil Companies, Oil Supply and the Ermergence of the Hotelling Rent," Working papers 2012/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    17. Zhang, Bing & Wang, Peijie, 2014. "Return and volatility spillovers between china and world oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 413-420.
    18. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Subhan Ullah, 2024. "Correction to: Financial modelling, risk management of energy instruments and the role of cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 332(1), pages 1273-1273, January.

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