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Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes

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  • Kogan, Shimon
  • Schneider, Florian H.
  • Weber, Roberto A.

Abstract

Beliefs about collective outcomes play an important role in many contexts. We study biases in the formation of such beliefs. Specifically, we investigate whether self-serving biases in information processing—documented for beliefs about individual outcomes—affect beliefs about collective outcomes. In a first study, we find that people indeed exhibit self-serving biases for collective outcomes, and that such biases are similar to biases for individual outcomes. We also observe that the presence of a market institution for aggregating private information produces, if anything, slightly greater collective self-delusion. In a second study, we investigate the mechanisms driving collective self-delusion and find that anticipatory utility plays a large role, rather than ego-utility considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • Kogan, Shimon & Schneider, Florian H. & Weber, Roberto A., 2025. "Self-serving biases in beliefs about collective outcomes," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 315-344.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:153:y:2025:i:c:p:315-344
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.06.008
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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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