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Hedging, ambiguity, and the reversal of order axiom

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  • Oechssler, Jörg
  • Rau, Hannes
  • Roomets, Alex

Abstract

We ran experiments that gave subjects a straight-forward and simple opportunity to hedge away ambiguity in an Ellsberg-style experiment. Subjects had to make bets on the combined outcomes of a fair coin and a draw from an ambiguous urn. By modifying the timing of the draw, coin flip, and decision, we are able to test the reversal-of-order axiom. Our main result is that the reversal-of-order axiom seems to hold. We also confirm low levels of ambiguity hedging despite the relative obviousness of the opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Oechssler, Jörg & Rau, Hannes & Roomets, Alex, 2019. "Hedging, ambiguity, and the reversal of order axiom," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 380-387.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:117:y:2019:i:c:p:380-387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2019.07.007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aurélien Baillon & Yoram Halevy & Chen Li, 2022. "Experimental elicitation of ambiguity attitude using the random incentive system," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(3), pages 1002-1023, June.
    2. König-Kersting, Christian & Kops, Christopher & Trautmann, Stefan T., 2023. "A test of (weak) certainty independence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Baillon, Aurélien & Bleichrodt, Han & Li, Chen & Wakker, Peter P., 2021. "Belief hedges: Measuring ambiguity for all events and all models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    4. Aurélien Baillon & Yoram Halevy & Chen Li, 2022. "Randomize at Your Own Risk: On the Observability of Ambiguity Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(3), pages 1085-1107, May.
    5. Lotito Gianna & Maffioletti Anna & Santoni Michele, 2023. "Testing Source Influence on Ambiguity Reaction: Preference and Insensitivity," Working papers 083, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    6. Oechssler, Jörg & Roomets, Alex, 2023. "Dissolving an ambiguous partnership," Working Papers 0733, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Li, Jiangyan & Fairley, Kim & Fenneman, Achiel, 2024. "Does it matter how we produce ambiguity in experiments?," MPRA Paper 122336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jörg Oechssler & Alex Roomets, 2021. "Savage vs. Anscombe-Aumann: an experimental investigation of ambiguity frameworks," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 90(3), pages 405-416, May.
    9. Kellner, Christian & Le Quement, Mark T. & Riener, Gerhard, 2022. "Reacting to ambiguous messages: An experimental analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 360-378.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ellsberg paradox; Hedging; Reversal of order axiom; Experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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