Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management
Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to Douglas-fir/western hemlock forests in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. An MDP model was used to find the harvest decisions that maximized the forest value of a stand in a particular state, given the price level and interest rate. This optimal policy was compared with the policy that would hold in the same context but with an interest rate fixed at its historical average. The results showed that when the interest rate was lower than its historical average, the best decision differed for 52 of the 192 possible combinations of stand state and price level. Assuming a fixed interest rate underestimated the forest value by 4% to 16% depending on the initial condition. However, applying the harvest policy derived with a fixed interest rate led to a loss of no more than 7% depending on the initial condition. Taking explicit account of the variability of interest rate in setting harvest policies had some unexpected ecological benefits.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harry R Clarke & William J. Reed, 1989.
"The Tree-Cutting Problem in a Stochastic Environment: The case of Age Dependent Growth,"
1989.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
- Clarke, Harry R. & Reed, William J., 1989. "The tree-cutting problem in a stochastic environment : The case of age-dependent growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 569-595, October.
- Alvarez, Luis H R & Koskela, Erkki, 2003.
"On Forest Rotation under Interest Rate Variability,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 489-503, August.
- Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2003. "On Forest Rotation Under Interest Rate Variability," Discussion Papers 840, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
- Thomas A. Thomson, 1992. "Optimal Forest Rotation When Stumpage Prices Follow a Diffusion Process," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 68(3), pages 329-342.
- Ching-Rong Lin & Joseph Buongiorno, 1998. "Tree Diversity, Landscape Diversity, and Economics of Maple-Birch Forests: Implications of Markovian Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
- Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2006.
"Does risk aversion accelerate optimal forest rotation under uncertainty?,"
Journal of Forest Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 171-184, December.
- Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2004. "Does Risk Aversion Accelerate Optimal Forest Rotation under Uncertainty?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1285, CESifo Group Munich.
- Margaret Insley & Kimberly Rollins, 2005. "On Solving the Multirotational Timber Harvesting Problem with Stochastic Prices: A Linear Complementarity Formulation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(3), pages 735-755.
- Morton, R., 1973. "Optimal control of stationary Markov processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 237-249, July.
- Richard B. Howarth, 2009. "Discounting, Uncertainty, and Revealed Time Preference," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 24-40.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:13:y:2011:i:5:p:402-410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.