IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v86y2025ipfs1544612325020380.html

Geopolitical risk and IPO underpricing: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Rumokoy, Lawren Julio
  • Lengkong, Victor
  • Chung, Richard
  • Liu, Benjamin

Abstract

Using 2933 Chinese IPOs from 2010 to 2023, we provide robust evidence that heightened geopolitical risk (GPR) exacerbates IPO underpricing. A one-standard-deviation rise in GPR increases underpricing by about 14 %, indicating its substantial economic impact as issuers offer deeper discounts to offset investors’ risk concerns. The effect attenuates as the pre-IPO window narrows and disappears in the IPO month. Decomposing GPR reveals that anticipated threats raise underpricing, whereas realized events reduce it, consistent with conflict anticipation being priced more heavily than its realization. While macro uncertainties, including China’s trade policy and US-China tensions, amplify underpricing, market-specific shocks such as IPO suspensions weaken it. To navigate GPR, issuers respond with larger absolute price revisions, higher issue prices, and greater floats. Finally, GPR’s effects are more pronounced on the SSE Main Board and among SOEs, but are reversed on the STAR Market. Our study provides novel insights into how GPR shapes IPO outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rumokoy, Lawren Julio & Lengkong, Victor & Chung, Richard & Liu, Benjamin, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and IPO underpricing: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PF).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:86:y:2025:i:pf:s1544612325020380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108784
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325020380
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108784?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Beatty, Randolph P. & Ritter, Jay R., 1986. "Investment banking, reputation, and the underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 213-232.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2021. "Firms' cash reserve, financial constraint, and geopolitical risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    5. Zhang, Zhengyong & Bouri, Elie & Klein, Tony & Jalkh, Naji, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the returns and volatility of global defense companies: A new race to arms?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    7. Rumokoy, Lawren J. & Omura, Akihiro & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate investment in the metals and mining industry: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Shane A. Corwin & Paul Schultz, 2005. "The Role of IPO Underwriting Syndicates: Pricing, Information Production, and Underwriter Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 443-486, February.
    9. Klein, Tony, 2024. "Investor behavior in times of conflict: A natural experiment on the interplay of geopolitical risk and defense stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 294-313.
    10. Lee, Peggy M. & Wahal, Sunil, 2004. "Grandstanding, certification and the underpricing of venture capital backed IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 375-407, August.
    11. Pan, Wanbin & Liu, Yanliang & Tao, Libin, 2024. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty on IPO underpricing: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. Ha Kieu Oanh & Khanh Hoang, 2020. "The bright side of geopolitical risk: evidence from Chinese firms," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 353-370, September.
    13. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    15. Tian, Lihui, 2011. "Regulatory underpricing: Determinants of Chinese extreme IPO returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 78-90, January.
    16. Liu, Jianlei & Uchida, Konari & Gao, Ruidong, 2012. "Political connections and the long-term stock performance of Chinese IPOs," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 814-833.
    17. Li, Jiahui & Li, Rui, 2022. "IPO policy and IPO underpricing: Evidence from the registration-based IPO reform in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    18. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Boulton, Thomas J., 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and international IPO underpricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Khoo, Joye & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2021. "Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    21. Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 1993. "The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-250, October.
    22. Zhang, Jixiang & Zeng, Qing & Bouri, Elie & Gozgor, Giray, 2025. "Newly-constructed Chinese geopolitical risk index and trade stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    23. Ibbotson, Roger G., 1975. "Price performance of common stock new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-272, September.
    24. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    25. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212.
    26. Zhou, Qiao & Zhang, Lin & Huang, Hui, 2025. "Impact of geopolitical risk on corporate insurance investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    27. Chen, Yibiao & Wang, Steven Shuye & Li, Wei & Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2015. "Institutional environment, firm ownership, and IPO first-day returns: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 150-168.
    28. Alqahtani, Abdullah & Klein, Tony, 2021. "Oil price changes, uncertainty, and geopolitical risks: On the resilience of GCC countries to global tensions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    29. Zhang, Mengting & Du, Wenjiao, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and IPO underpricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    30. Lowry, Michelle & Schwert, G. William, 2004. "Is the IPO pricing process efficient?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 3-26, January.
    31. Dewenter, Kathryn L & Malatesta, Paul H, 1997. "Public Offerings of State-Owned and Privately-Owned Enterprises: An International Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1659-1679, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiang, Xin & He, Xu & Han, Yajie, 2024. "Does oil price uncertainty affect IPO underpricing? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 240-259.
    2. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kallias, Antonios & Kallias, Konstantinos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2017. "Political money contributions of U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-38.
    3. Li, Xiaorong & Wang, Steven Shuye & Wang, Xue, 2019. "Trust and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 224-248.
    4. Colak, Gonul & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Loukopoulos, Georgios, 2021. "Political power, local policy uncertainty and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Jia, Shaoqing & Yang, Liuyong & Zhou, Fangzhao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. William R. Sodjahin & Marie-Claude Beaulieu, 2013. "The impact of firm-specific information during the registration period on initial public offering pricing," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1083-1096, July.
    7. Yaghoubi, Mona, 2024. "Executive characteristics as moderators: Exploring the impact of geopolitical risk on capital structure decisions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Liu, Jianlei & Uchida, Konari & Li, Yuan, 2020. "Provincial economic performance and underpricing of IPOs: Evidence from political interventions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 274-285.
    9. Butler, Alexander W. & Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Kieschnick, Robert, 2014. "Robust determinants of IPO underpricing and their implications for IPO research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 367-383.
    10. Natalia Matanova & Tanja Steigner & Bingsheng Yi & Qiancheng Zheng, 2019. "Going concern opinions and IPO pricing accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-238, July.
    11. Huang, Xinfei & Zhang, Yue & Zong, Zhe, 2025. "Governmental venture capital and investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese government guidance funds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. An, Heng (Hunter) & Chan, Kam C., 2008. "Credit ratings and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 584-595, December.
    13. Goergen, Marc & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Koutroumpis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Do multiple credit ratings reduce money left on the table? Evidence from U.S. IPOs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Zhang, Zikai & Neupane, Suman, 2024. "Global IPO underpricing during the Covid-19 pandemic: The impact of firm fundamentals, financial intermediaries, and global factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2022. "U.S. banks’ IPOs and political money contributions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Carney, Richard W. & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wang, He (Helen), 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the cost of capital in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Lehmann, Timo & Weber, Matthias, 2021. "IPO Underpricing and Aftermarket Price Accuracy: Auctions vs. Bookbuilding in Japan," SocArXiv sa385, Center for Open Science.
    18. Jeppsson, Hans, 2018. "Initial public offerings, subscription precommitments and venture capital participation," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 650-668.
    19. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2021. "Market expectations and the impact of credit rating on the IPOs of U.S. banks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 587-610.
    20. Arnab Bhattacharya & Binay Bhushan Chakrabarti & Chinmoy Ghosh & Milena Petrova, 2020. "Innovations in financing: The impact of anchor investors in Indian IPOs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1059-1106, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:86:y:2025:i:pf:s1544612325020380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.