IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v53y2023ics1544612323000107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of the US yield curve on sub-Saharan African equities

Author

Listed:
  • Bossman, Ahmed
  • Umar, Zaghum
  • Agyei, Samuel Kwaku
  • Teplova, Tamara

Abstract

We study the impact of the components of the US yield curve on sub-Saharan African (SSA) equities. In a time-varying parameter vector auto-regressions connectedness model, we find that the short- and long-term maturities of the US yield curve significantly drive the connectedness between SSA equities whilst serving as the main sources of contagious spillovers in crisis periods. We find that the responses of SSA equities to returns and volatility spillovers in a system containing the yield curve's components are nonhomogeneous, rekindling the need for cross-market/asset hedging using SSA equities. Our findings have implications for international investors, regulators, and practitioners alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "The impact of the US yield curve on sub-Saharan African equities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:53:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323000107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103636
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323000107
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103636?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bossman, Ahmed & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku, 2022. "Interdependence structure of global commodity classes and African equity markets: A vector wavelet coherence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Aharon, David Y., 2022. "Network connectedness dynamics of the yield curve of G7 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 275-288.
    4. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2014. "Stocks for the long run? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 217-238.
    5. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Aharon, David Y., 2021. "The relationship between yield curve components and equity sectorial indices: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2014. "A new index of financial conditions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 101-116.
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    10. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Zaghum Umar & Mariya Gubareva, 2021. "The relationship between the Covid-19 media coverage and the Environmental, Social and Governance leaders equity volatility: a time-frequency wavelet analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(27), pages 3193-3206, June.
    12. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    13. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
    14. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-41.
    15. Izunna Anyikwa & Pierre Le Roux, 2020. "Integration of African Stock Markets with the Developed Stock Markets: An Analysis of Co-Movements, Volatility and Contagion," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 279-296, April.
    16. David Y. Aharon & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between the term structure of interest rates, bitcoin, and safe-haven currencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    17. Ahmed Bossman & Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Yuxing Li, 2022. "ICEEMDAN-Based Transfer Entropy between Global Commodity Classes and African Equities," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-28, July.
    18. Yasir Riaz & Choudhry T. Shehzad & Zaghum Umar, 2021. "The sovereign yield curve and credit ratings in GIIPS," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 895-916, September.
    19. Zaghum Umar & Yasir Riaz & Adam Zaremba, 2021. "Spillover and risk transmission in the components of the term structure of eurozone yield curve," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(18), pages 2141-2157, April.
    20. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    21. Yasmeen Idilbi-Bayaa & Mahmoud Qadan, 2021. "Forecasting Commodity Prices Using the Term Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-39, December.
    22. Buchanan, Bonnie G. & English II, Philip C. & Gordon, Rachel, 2011. "Emerging market benefits, investability and the rule of law," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-60, March.
    23. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    24. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
    25. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Patterns of Spillover in Energy, Agricultural, and Metal Markets: A Connectedness Analysis for Years 1780-2020," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    2. Aharon, David Y. & Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf Azman & Vo, Xuan vinh, 2022. "COVID-19 related media sentiment and the yield curve of G-7 economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Zaghum Umar & Oluwasegun Babatunde Adekoya & Mariya Gubareva & Sabri Boubaker, 2024. "Returns and volatility connectedness among the Eurozone equity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3103-3122, July.
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Gubareva, Mariya & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Spillover and risk transmission between the term structure of the US interest rates and Islamic equities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Iqbal, Najaf & Umar, Zaghum & Ruman, Asif M. & Jiang, Shaohua, 2024. "The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Aharon, David Y. & Esparcia, Carlos & AlWahedi, Wafa, 2022. "Spillovers between sovereign yield curve components and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Choi, Sun-Yong & Phiri, Andrew & Teplova, Tamara & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Connectedness between (un)conventional monetary policy and islamic and advanced equity markets: A returns and volatility spillover analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 348-363.
    9. Trabelsi, Nader & Umar, Zaghum & Dogah, Kingsley E. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2024. "Are investment grade Sukuks decoupled from the conventional yield curve?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Aharon, David Y., 2021. "The relationship between yield curve components and equity sectorial indices: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Francisco Jareño & Ana Escribano & Zaghum Umar, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the connectedness of the BRICS’s term structure," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    12. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Shahab, Yasir & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Network connectedness of the term structure of yield curve and global Sukuks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of market uncertainties on agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    14. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed, 2023. "Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Aharon, David Y., 2022. "Network connectedness dynamics of the yield curve of G7 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 275-288.
    16. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Bossman, Ahmed & Agyei, Samuel Kwaku, 2022. "Interdependence structure of global commodity classes and African equity markets: A vector wavelet coherence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness between non-fungible tokens, decentralized finance, and conventional financial assets in a time-frequency framework," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of interest rates; Yield curve; Sub-saharan Africa; Emerging equity markets; Financial contagion; Spillover connectedness; Delayed contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N27 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Africa; Oceania

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:53:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323000107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.