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Overconfidence, risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals

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  • Broihanne, M.H.
  • Merli, M.
  • Roger, P.

Abstract

This paper highlights the role played by overconfidence and risk perception in the risk-taking behaviors of finance professionals. We interviewed 64 high-level professionals and demonstrate that they are overconfident in both the general and the financial domains. Using a recent measure proposed by Glaser et al. (2013), we indicate that respondents are overconfident in forecasting future stock prices. We demonstrate that the risk they are willing to assume is positively influenced by overconfidence and optimism and negatively influenced by risk perception. However, the stock return volatility anticipated is, in most cases, an insignificant determinant of the risk that professionals are ready to assume.

Suggested Citation

  • Broihanne, M.H. & Merli, M. & Roger, P., 2014. "Overconfidence, risk perception and the risk-taking behavior of finance professionals," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 64-73.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:2:p:64-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2013.11.002
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    2. Grassetti, Francesca & Mammana, Cristiana & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2019. "On the interaction between real economy and financial markets," MPRA Paper 91975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Correlation Neglect and Overconfidence. An Experimental Study," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(3), pages 1-5.
    4. Laurence Aitchison & Dan Bang & Bahador Bahrami & Peter E Latham, 2015. "Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-23, October.
    5. Christoph Buehren & Marvin Gabriel, 2021. "Performing best when it matters the most: Evidence from professional handball," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202119, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Nicolas Aubert & Niaz Kammoun & Yacine Bekrar, 2018. "Financial decisions of the financially literate," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 39(2), pages 43-91.
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    8. E. M. Cervellati & P. Pattitoni & M. Savioli, 2016. "Cognitive Biases and Entrepreneurial Under-Diversification," Working Papers wp1076, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Park, Na Young, 2019. "Patience in financial decisions and post-secondary education," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Yadav Devi Prasad Behera & Sudhansu Sekhar Nanda & Saroj Kumar Sahoo & Tushar Ranjan Sahoo, 2021. "The Compounding Effect of Investors’ Cognition and Risk Absorption Potential on Enhancing the Level of Interest towards Investment in the Domestic Capital Market," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, February.
    11. Leković Milјan, 2020. "Cognitive Biases as an Integral Part of Behavioral Finance," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(1), pages 75-96, March.
    12. Zamri Ahmad & Haslindar Ibrahim & Jasman Tuyon, 2017. "Institutional investor behavioral biases: syntheses of theory and evidence," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 578-603, May.
    13. Osman Sayid Hassan Musse & Abdelghani Echchabi & Hassanuddeen Abdul Aziz, 2015. "Islamic and Conventional Behavioral Finance: A Critical Review of Literature التمويل السلوكي الإسلامي والتقليدي: مراجعة نقدية للأدبيات," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 28(2), pages 237-251, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overconfidence; Risk taking; Risk perception; Finance professionals; Investor behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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