IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v83y2022ics105752192200268x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Ying
  • Wang, Haiying
  • Jin, Xiu

Abstract

This paper studies the pandemic-driven financial contagion during the COVID-19 period and the impact of investor behavior on it by constructing three types of direct behavior measurements based on Google search volumes. More specifically, using a sample of 26 major stock markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic, we construct a non-linear financial contagion network via a dynamic mixture copula-EVT (extreme value theory) model to quantitatively detect and measure the complex nature of pandemic-driven financial contagion. Furthermore, through constructing direct investor behavior measurements including investor attention, sentiment, and fear, we find investor behavior plays an important role in explaining pandemic-driven financial contagion. We also find that the impacts of investor behavior on the pandemic-driven financial contagion are heterogeneous under several different settings, including market conditions, market development levels, regional subsets, and contagion directions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Jin, Xiu, 2022. "Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:83:y:2022:i:c:s105752192200268x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752192200268X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102315?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cindy K Soo, 2018. "Quantifying Sentiment with News Media across Local Housing Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(10), pages 3689-3719.
    2. Paltalidis, Nikos & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kizys, Renatas & Koutelidakis, Yiannis, 2015. "Transmission channels of systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 36-52.
    3. Gao, Zhenyu & Ren, Haohan & Zhang, Bohui, 2020. "Googling Investor Sentiment around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 549-580, March.
    4. Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, April.
    5. Gabrielle Demange, 2018. "Contagion in Financial Networks: A Threat Index," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 955-970, February.
    6. Guo, Yanhong & Li, Ping & Li, Aihua, 2021. "Tail risk contagion between international financial markets during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    8. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2015. "Editor's Choice The Sum of All FEARS Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 1-32.
    9. Chen, Wang & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Network structures and idiosyncratic contagion in the European sovereign credit default swap market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Huang, Yuqin & Qiu, Huiyan & Wu, Zhiguo, 2016. "Local bias in investor attention: Evidence from China's Internet stock message boards," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 338-354.
    11. Hsieh, Shu-Fan & Chan, Chia-Ying & Wang, Ming-Chun, 2020. "Retail investor attention and herding behavior," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 109-132.
    12. Fan, Xiaoyun & Wang, Yedong & Wang, Daoping, 2021. "Network connectedness and China's systemic financial risk contagion——An analysis based on big data," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2012. "A Copulas-Based Approach to Modeling Dependence in Decision Trees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 225-242, February.
    14. Hüttner, Amelie & Scherer, Matthias & Gräler, Benedikt, 2020. "Geostatistical modeling of dependent credit spreads: Estimation of large covariance matrices and imputation of missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Bijl, Laurens & Kringhaug, Glenn & Molnár, Peter & Sandvik, Eirik, 2016. "Google searches and stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 150-156.
    16. Dungey, Mardi & Flavin, Thomas J. & Lagoa-Varela, Dolores, 2020. "Are banking shocks contagious? Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Calabrese, Raffaella & Crook, Jonathan, 2020. "Spatial contagion in mortgage defaults: A spatial dynamic survival model with time and space varying coefficients," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 749-761.
    18. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & DiGiovanni, Yuting Meng, 2020. "Mood beta and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 272-295.
    19. Liao, Jianhui & Zhu, Xuehong & Chen, Jinyu, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers across oil, gold and stock markets in the presence of major public health emergencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Ye, Wuyi & Luo, Kebing & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2017. "Time-varying quantile association regression model with applications to financial contagion and VaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(3), pages 1015-1028.
    21. Duan, Yuejiao & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Li, Haoran & Li, Xinming, 2021. "Bank systemic risk around COVID-19: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    22. Aristeidis, Samitas & Elias, Kampouris, 2018. "Empirical analysis of market reactions to the UK’s referendum results – How strong will Brexit be?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 263-286.
    23. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    24. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander, 2020. "Informational role of social media: Evidence from Twitter sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    25. Tomas Reyes, 2019. "Negativity Bias in Attention Allocation: Retail Investors’ Reaction to Stock Returns," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 155-189, March.
    26. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Martin, Vance L., 2021. "Measuring financial interdependence in asset markets with an application to eurozone equities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    27. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2019. "What drives European Union stock market co-movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 57-69.
    28. Jayech, Selma, 2016. "The contagion channels of July–August-2011 stock market crash: A DAG-copula based approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 631-646.
    29. Wang, Haiying & Yuan, Ying & Li, Yiou & Wang, Xunhong, 2021. "Financial contagion and contagion channels in the forex market: A new approach via the dynamic mixture copula-extreme value theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-414.
    30. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2020. "Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    31. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    32. Mohti, Wahbeeah & Dionísio, Andreia & Vieira, Isabel & Ferreira, Paulo, 2019. "Financial contagion analysis in frontier markets: Evidence from the US subprime and the Eurozone debt crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1388-1398.
    33. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Polyzos, Stathis, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic and spillover effects in stock markets: A financial network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    34. Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Małgorzata & Rogowicz, Karol & Kurowski, Łukasz & Smaga, Paweł, 2021. "Two decades of contagion effect on stock markets: Which events are more contagious?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    35. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying & Zhao, Albert Bo, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the volatility connectedness network of global stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    36. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    37. de Carvalho, Pablo Jose Campos & Gupta, Aparna, 2018. "A network approach to unravel asset price comovement using minimal dependence structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 119-132.
    38. Sun, Yunpeng & Bao, Qun & Lu, Zhou, 2021. "Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, investor sentiment, and medical portfolio: Evidence from China, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    39. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Addo, Emmanuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Re-examination of international bond market dependence: Evidence from a pair copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    40. Samitas, Aristeidis & Papathanasiou, Spyros & Koutsokostas, Drosos & Kampouris, Elias, 2022. "Are timber and water investments safe-havens? A volatility spillover approach and portfolio hedging strategies for investors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    41. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    42. Steffen Schuldenzucker & Sven Seuken & Stefano Battiston, 2020. "Default Ambiguity: Credit Default Swaps Create New Systemic Risks in Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1981-1998, May.
    43. Dzieliński, Michał & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Talpsepp, Tõnn, 2018. "Asymmetric attention and volatility asymmetry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 59-67.
    44. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Stock markets and the COVID-19 fractal contagion effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    45. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 787-815, September.
    46. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2020. "Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-147.
    47. Haiying Wang & Ying Yuan & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "The dynamics of cross‐boundary fire—Financial contagion between the oil and stock markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1655-1673, October.
    48. Samitas, Aristeidis & Papathanasiou, Spyros & Koutsokostas, Drosos & Kampouris, Elias, 2022. "Volatility spillovers between fine wine and major global markets during COVID-19: A portfolio hedging strategy for investors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 629-642.
    49. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    50. Gençay, Ramazan & Pang, Hao & Tseng, Michael C. & Xue, Yi, 2020. "Contagion in a network of heterogeneous banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    51. Tantaopas, Parkpoom & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2016. "Attention effect via internet search intensity in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 107-124.
    52. Hurn, Stan & Shi, Shuping & Wang, Ben, 2022. "Housing networks and driving forces," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    53. Fang, Jianchun & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi-Keung Marco & Lu, Zhou, 2020. "The impact of Baidu Index sentiment on the volatility of China's stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    54. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Ilias, 2021. "Economic stimulus through bank regulation: Government responses to the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    55. J. Anthony Cookson & Marina Niessner, 2020. "Why Don't We Agree? Evidence from a Social Network of Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 173-228, February.
    56. Supper, Hendrik & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor, 2020. "A comparison of tail dependence estimators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 728-742.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Du, Yanan & Wang, Qingxi & Zhou, Jianping, 2023. "How does digital inclusive finance affect economic resilience: Evidence from 285 cities in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Eduard Mihai Manta & Razvan Gabriel Hapau & Mihaela Gruiescu & Oana Mihaela Vacaru (Boita), 2023. "Exploring the Contagion Effect from Developed to Emerging CEE Financial Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-50, January.
    3. Luu, Ellie & Xu, Fangming & Zheng, Liyi, 2023. "Short-selling activities in the time of COVID-19," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Eduard Mihai Manta & Razvan Gabriel Hapau & Mihaela Gruiescu & Oana Mihaela Vacaru (Boita), 2023. "Exploring the Contagion Effect from Developed to Emerging CEE Financial Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-50, January.
    2. Mbarki, Imen & Omri, Abdelwahed & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "From sentiment to systemic risk: Information transmission in Asia-Pacific stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Xie, Qiwei & Cheng, Lu & Liu, Ranran & Zheng, Xiaolong & Li, Jingyu, 2023. "COVID-19 and risk spillovers of China's major financial markets: Evidence from time-varying variance decomposition and wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Foglia, Matteo & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Angelini, Eliana, 2021. "Feverish sentiment and global equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1088-1108.
    5. Wang, Haiying & Yuan, Ying & Li, Yiou & Wang, Xunhong, 2021. "Financial contagion and contagion channels in the forex market: A new approach via the dynamic mixture copula-extreme value theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-414.
    6. Dong, Dayong & Wu, Keke & Fang, Jianchun & Gozgor, Giray & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Investor attention factors and stock returns: Evidence from China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Mehwish Aziz Khan & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2018. "Measurement of Investor Sentiment and Its Bi-Directional Contemporaneous and Lead–Lag Relationship with Returns: Evidence from Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ballis, Antonis & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Constructing a positive sentiment index for COVID-19: Evidence from G20 stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Shen, Shulin & Xia, Le & Shuai, Yulin & Gao, Da, 2022. "Measuring news media sentiment using big data for Chinese stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    12. Yousaf, Imran & Youssef, Manel & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Quantile connectedness between sentiment and financial markets: Evidence from the S&P 500 twitter sentiment index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek & Tucker, Allan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    15. Stig Vinther Møller & Thomas Pedersen & Erik Christian Montes Schütte & Allan Timmermann, 2024. "Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(1), pages 415-438, January.
    16. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Investor attention and global market returns during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Edmans, Alex & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Garel, Alexandre & Indriawan, Ivan, 2022. "Music sentiment and stock returns around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 234-254.
    18. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stock mispricing, hard-to-value stocks and the influence of internet stock message boards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    20. Klemola, Antti, 2020. "Internet search-based investor sentiment and value premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial contagion; Investor behavior; Google search; COVID-19; Pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:83:y:2022:i:c:s105752192200268x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.