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Financial crisis, Value-at-Risk forecasts and the puzzle of dependency modeling

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  • Berger, T.
  • Missong, M.

Abstract

Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) for financial portfolios is a crucial task in applied financial risk management. In this paper, we compare VaR forecasts based on different models for return interdependencies: volatility spillover (Engle & Kroner, 1995), dynamic conditional correlations (Engle, 2002, 2009) and (elliptical) copulas (Embrechts et al., 2002). Moreover, competing models for marginal return distributions are applied. In particular, we apply extreme value theory (EVT) models to GARCH-filtered residuals to capture excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, T. & Missong, M., 2014. "Financial crisis, Value-at-Risk forecasts and the puzzle of dependency modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:33:y:2014:i:c:p:33-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.07.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Adam, Tomáš & Benecká, Soňa & Matějů, Jakub, 2018. "Financial stress and its non-linear impact on CEE exchange rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 346-360.
    3. Theo Berger & Christina Uffmann, 2021. "Assessing liquidity‐adjusted risk forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1179-1189, November.
    4. BONGA-BONGA, Lumengo & NLEYA, Lebogang, 2018. "Assessing Portfolio Market Risk in the BRICS Economies: Use of Multivariate GARCH Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(2), pages 87-128.
    5. Quanrui Song & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Risk Measurement of Stock Markets in BRICS, G7, and G20: Vine Copulas versus Factor Copulas," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Mazin A.M. Al Janabi, 2021. "Is optimum always optimal? A revisit of the mean‐variance method under nonlinear measures of dependence and non‐normal liquidity constraints," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 387-415, April.
    7. Ahmed BenSaïda & Sabri Boubaker & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Skander Slim, 2018. "Value‐at‐risk under market shifts through highly flexible models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 790-804, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Portfolio Value-at-Risk; Dynamic conditional correlations; Elliptical copulas; Extreme value theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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