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Did the 1917–21 economic depression accelerate the epidemiological transition? Milk prices, summer peak of mortality, and food-and-water causes of death in Madrid, Spain

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  • Oris, Michel
  • Mazzoni, Stanislao
  • Ramiro-Fariñas, Diego

Abstract

This article aims to answer a provocative question: would higher prices, particularly that of milk, be beneficial for the survival of children under 2 years old? Using a database of more than 230,000 births, matched to deaths, we test this hypothesis in the context of a large Mediterranean city, Madrid, in the years 1915–1926. During this period an inflationary crisis spread from 1917 to 1921. We compare child survival, the impact of milk price fluctuations, and the summer mortality peak, controlling for socio-spatial segregation and considering all-cause mortality and mortality due to food- and water-borne illnesses, before, during and after the economic depression. A positive association between increases in the milk price and better chances of survival is statistically robust, but only observed during depression. Several explanations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Oris, Michel & Mazzoni, Stanislao & Ramiro-Fariñas, Diego, 2024. "Did the 1917–21 economic depression accelerate the epidemiological transition? Milk prices, summer peak of mortality, and food-and-water causes of death in Madrid, Spain," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s0014498324000391
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101613
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Infant mortality; Childhood mortality; Seasonality; Milk; Epidemiological transition; Madrid;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N94 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: 1913-
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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