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Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920

Author

Listed:
  • Del Angel, Marco
  • Fohlin, Caroline
  • Weidenmier, Marc D.

Abstract

We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected sample of 131 firms that traded on the NYSE, we examine the impact of the four waves of the flu on stock returns using panel regressions. We find that the second and fourth wave of the pandemic significantly lowered stock returns by 65.5 and 21.6 percent relative to the sample mean return, respectively. The large, but temporary impact of the virus on stock returns can probably be attributed to the fact that, unlike Covid-19, the flu hit the working age population particularly hard.

Suggested Citation

  • Del Angel, Marco & Fohlin, Caroline & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2023. "Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s0014498323000372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101543
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    Keywords

    Stock returns; Influenza;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • B26 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Financial Economics

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