IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v41y2012icp269-279.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme

Author

Listed:
  • Bednyagin, Denis
  • Gnansounou, Edgard

Abstract

This paper is focused on the analysis of spillover benefits of the ongoing R&D programme on thermonuclear fusion technology. The spillover effects are understood here as positive externalities of publicly funded R&D, demonstration and deployment (RDDD) activities that may be revealed at the companies' level in the form of newly created knowledge stock; development of innovative products/processes with broader market applications; strengthening of R&D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities; etc. An integrated compound real options model is proposed that allows to estimate the strategic net social present value of fusion RDDD programme taking into account the different types of spillover benefits along with the hidden real options value arising due to uncertainty and managerial flexibility. It was found that the value of spillover effects, modelled as “expansion option”, could represent a significant proportion of the overall socio-economic value of fusion RDDD programme (nearly 20%). This paper clearly demonstrates that, besides a high-level mission to assure sustainable energy supply, fusion RDDD programme may yield substantial net socio-economic benefits that may be at least two times higher compared to the expected RD&D costs, and hence the pursuit of even more ambitious programme is economically justified.

Suggested Citation

  • Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2012. "Estimating spillover benefits of large R&D projects: Application of real options modelling approach to the case of thermonuclear fusion R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 269-279.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:269-279
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511008573
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 353-378, July.
    2. Davis, Graham A. & Owens, Brandon, 2003. "Optimizing the level of renewable electric R&D expenditures using real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(15), pages 1589-1608, December.
    3. Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2011. "Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 116-130, January.
    4. Jaffe, Adam B, 1986. "Technological Opportunity and Spillovers of R&D: Evidence from Firms' Patents, Profits, and Market Value," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 984-1001, December.
    5. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1235-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Edwin Mansfield & John Rapoport & Anthony Romeo & Samuel Wagner & George Beardsley, 1977. "Social and Private Rates of Return from Industrial Innovations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 91(2), pages 221-240.
    8. Nadiri, M.I., 1993. "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," Working Papers 93-31, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    9. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
    10. Dooley, J J, 1998. "Unintended consequences: energy R&D in a deregulated energy market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 547-555, June.
    11. Charles I. Jones & John C. Williams, 1998. "Measuring the Social Return to R&D," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1119-1135.
    12. Driouchi, Tarik & Leseure, Michel & Bennett, David, 2009. "A robustness framework for monitoring real options under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 698-710, June.
    13. M. Ishaq Nadiri, 1993. "Innovations and Technological Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 4423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    15. Bruno Van Pottelsberghe De La Potterie, 1997. "Issues in Assessing the Effect of Interindustry R&D Spillovers," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 331-356.
    16. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Issues in Assessing the Contribution of Research and Development to Productivity Growth," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 17-45, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    18. Rosenberg,Nathan, 1994. "Exploring the Black Box," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521459556.
    19. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris & Wiser, Ryan H., 2007. "Real options valuation of US federal renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 265-279, January.
    20. Adams, James D, 1990. "Fundamental Stocks of Knowledge and Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 673-702, August.
    21. Bruno Van Pottelsberghe & Henri Capron, 1997. "Public support to business R&D: an integrated assessment scheme," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6285, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    23. Michele Cincera & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe, 2001. "International R&D spillovers: a survey," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 169(169), pages 3-31.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martins, José & Marques, Rui Cunha & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira, 2014. "Maximizing the value for money of PPP arrangements through flexibility: An application to airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-80.
    2. Filippetti, Andrea & Vezzani, Antonio, 2022. "The political economy of public research, or why some governments commit to research more than others," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Nemet, Gregory F. & Zipperer, Vera & Kraus, Martina, 2018. "The valley of death, the technology pork barrel, and public support for large demonstration projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 154-167.
    4. Elia, A. & Kamidelivand, M. & Rogan, F. & Ó Gallachóir, B., 2021. "Impacts of innovation on renewable energy technology cost reductions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Feldman, David & Jones-Albertus, Rebecca & Margolis, Robert, 2020. "Quantifying the impact of R&D on PV project financing costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Shayegh, Soheil & Sanchez, Daniel L. & Caldeira, Ken, 2017. "Evaluating relative benefits of different types of R&D for clean energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 532-538.
    7. Jeon, Chanwoong & Lee, Jeongjin & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Optimal subsidy estimation method using system dynamics and the real option model: Photovoltaic technology case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 33-43.
    8. Carayannis, Elias G. & Vincenzi, Marco & Draper, John, 2024. "The economic logic of open science in fusion energy research: A policy perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1033-1082, Elsevier.
    2. Bednyagin, Denis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2011. "Real options valuation of fusion energy R&D programme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 116-130, January.
    3. Fernández Vázquez, Esteban & Los, Bart, 2007. "A Maximum Entropy Approach to the Indenitication of Productive Technology Spillovers," Discussion Papers 1106, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Christoph Meister & Bart Verspagen & Guntram B. Wolff, 2006. "European Productivity Gaps: Is R&D the Solution?," Chapters, in: Susanne Mundschenk & Michael H. Stierle & Ulrike Stierle-von Schütz & Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag (ed.), Competitiveness and Growth in Europe, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Dominique Guellec & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, 2004. "From R&D to Productivity Growth: Do the Institutional Settings and the Source of Funds of R&D Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 353-378, July.
    6. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    7. G Medda & C. Piga, 2004. "R&S e spillover industriali: un'analisi sulle imprese italiane," Working Paper CRENoS 200406, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    8. Ana Lara GÓMEZ, 2015. "Technological Spillovers of Research Infrastructures," Departmental Working Papers 2015-18, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    9. G Cameron, 1996. "Innovation and Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0277, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Technological regimes and sectoral differences in productivity growth ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 16(6), pages 1105-1145, December.
    11. Dai, Lu & Zhang, Jiajun & Luo, Shougui, 2022. "Effective R&D capital and total factor productivity: Evidence using spatial panel data models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. Michael A. Verba, 2022. "Growth and innovation in the presence of knowledge and R&D accumulation dynamics," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 485-510, August.
    13. Pierre Koning & Karen Wiel, 2012. "School Responsiveness to Quality Rankings: An Empirical Analysis of Secondary Education in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 339-355, December.
    14. Keller, Wolfgang, 2002. "Trade and the Transmission of Technology," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-24, March.
    15. Martin Mellens & Herman Noordman & Johan Verbruggen, 2007. "Re-exports: international comparison and implications for performance indicators," CPB Document 149.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2008. "Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches," MPRA Paper 27523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bernadette Biatour, 2011. "Working Paper 10-11 - Estimation of inter-industry domestic and international R&D stocks for Belgium," Working Papers 1110, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    18. Lee, Gwanghoon, 2006. "The effectiveness of international knowledge spillover channels," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 2075-2088, November.
    19. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    20. Shanzi Ke & Mingyong Lai, 2011. "Productivity of Chinese Regions and the Location of Multinational Research and Development," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 34(1), pages 102-131, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:269-279. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.