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Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast


  • Li, Jun


This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100-300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600-700 million metric tons of CO2 emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO2 emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jun, 2008. "Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector--A review of energy and climate models forecast," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1736-1747, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:1736-1747

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
    2. Urge-Vorsatz, Diana & Novikova, Aleksandra, 2008. "Potentials and costs of carbon dioxide mitigation in the world's buildings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 642-661, February.
    3. Kejun Jiang & Xiulian Hu, 2006. "Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 233-250, September.
    4. Xuedu Lu & Jiahua Pan & Ying Chen, 2006. "Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(6), pages 85-97, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Guoqing & Zheng, Yun & Wu, Yong & Cui, Zhenhua & Qian, Kuangliang, 2015. "Promotion of building-integrated solar water heaters in urbanized areas in China: Experience, potential, and recommendations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 643-656.
    2. Li, Jun & Colombier, Michel & Giraud, Pierre-Noël, 2009. "Decision on optimal building energy efficiency standard in China--The case for Tianjin," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2546-2559, July.
    3. Li, Meng & Zhao, Jing & Zhu, Neng, 2013. "Method of checking and certifying carbon trading volume of existing buildings retrofits in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1178-1187.
    4. Coaffee, Jon, 2008. "Risk, resilience, and environmentally sustainable cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4633-4638, December.
    5. Gambhir, Ajay & Schulz, Niels & Napp, Tamaryn & Tong, Danlu & Munuera, Luis & Faist, Mark & Riahi, Keywan, 2013. "A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 614-632.
    6. Wang, Chen & Engels, Anita & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "Overview of research on China's transition to low-carbon development: The role of cities, technologies, industries and the energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1350-1364.
    7. Gong, Mei & Werner, Sven, 2015. "An assessment of district heating research in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 97-105.
    8. Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon & Kim, Son H. & Kyle, Page & Patel, Pralit, 2012. "China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 405-419.
    9. Yang, Xinyan & Zhang, Shicong & Xu, Wei, 2019. "Impact of zero energy buildings on medium-to-long term building energy consumption in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 574-586.
    10. Xu, Guangyue & Wang, Weimin, 2020. "China’s energy consumption in construction and building sectors: An outlook to 2100," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V. & Leahy, M., 2010. "A review of computer tools for analysing the integration of renewable energy into various energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(4), pages 1059-1082, April.
    12. Li, Jun, 2009. "Scaling up concentrating solar thermal technology in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 2051-2060, October.
    13. Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana & Tirado Herrero, Sergio, 2012. "Building synergies between climate change mitigation and energy poverty alleviation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 83-90.
    14. Bilgen, S., 2014. "Structure and environmental impact of global energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 890-902.
    15. Geng, Shengnan & Wang, Yuan & Zuo, Jian & Zhou, Zhihua & Du, Huibin & Mao, Guozhu, 2017. "Building life cycle assessment research: A review by bibliometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 176-184.
    16. Baek, Seoin & Park, Eunil & Kim, Min-Gil & Kwon, Sang Jib & Kim, Ki Joon & Ohm, Jay Y. & del Pobil, Angel P., 2016. "Optimal renewable power generation systems for Busan metropolitan city in South Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 517-525.
    17. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Yamaguchi, Yohei & Iwafune, Yumiko & Hidaka, Kazuyoshi & Meier, Alan & Yagita, Yoshie & Kawamoto, Hisaki & Nishikiori, Soichi, 2020. "Energy demand science for a decarbonized society in the context of the residential sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Hong, Lixuan & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Möller, Bernd, 2013. "2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 267-278.

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