Policy mixes for a just, effective, and public budget-conscious household energy transition in Switzerland

Policy mixes for decarbonizing residential buildings offer significant potential for greenhouse gas emission savings but involve trade-offs with public spending and distributional justice. Using microsimulation and based on survey data, we evaluate the potential effect in the near term of policy mixes with various bans, requirements, taxes, and subsidies by quantifying their impact on the immediate investment opportunities for heating and electricity of a representative sample of 6′355 Swiss households. Substantial emission savings are already profitable for many households even without policy intervention. However, a requirement to install solar photovoltaics (PV), combined with subsidies for PV, heat pumps, and envelope retrofits alongside increased energy taxes, can promote greater emission savings at limited public cost, while allowing for lower and more equally distributed heating and electricity costs for households. Added to this mix, an ambitious requirement to deeply retrofit the worst insulated buildings can achieve further emission and energy savings, albeit at comparatively high public costs or with exacerbated inequalities without retrofit subsidies. Without special support, low-income, elderly, and rural households and dwelling owners risk bearing a higher economic burden to achieve collective emission savings. By integrating rich survey data with detailed techno-economic microsimulation, this study offers a replicable framework to quantitatively evaluate energy policy mixes in Switzerland and beyond.