A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets
In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature. The model contains seasonality, a low-order autoregressive component and a variance describing the heteroskedastic residuals. The model is estimated on daily average temperature records from Stockholm (Sweden). By comparing the proposed model with the popular model of Campbell and Diebold (2005), we point out some important issues to be addressed when modelling the temperature for application in weather derivatives market.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002.
"Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2004. "Weather forecasting for weather derivatives," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Jewson,Stephen & Brix,Anders, 2005. "Weather Derivative Valuation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843713, October.
- Fred Benth & Wolfgang Karl HÃ¤rdle & Brenda LÃ³pez Cabrera, 2009. "Pricing of Asian temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Dorje Brody & Joanna Syroka & Mihail Zervos, 2002. "Dynamical pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-198.
- Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
- Svec, J. & Stevenson, M., 2007. "Modelling and forecasting temperature based weather derivatives," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 185-204.
- Fred ESPEN Benth & Jurate saltyte Benth, 2007. "The volatility of temperature and pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 553-561.
- Fred Espen Benth & Jurate Saltyte-Benth, 2005. "Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-85.
- FRED ESPEN BENTH & JŪRATĖ SALTYTĖ BENTH & STEEN KOEKEBAKKER, 2007. "Putting a Price on Temperature," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 34(4), pages 746-767.
- A. Zapranis & A. Alexandridis, 2008. "Modelling the Temperature Time-dependent Speed of Mean Reversion in the Context of Weather Derivatives Pricing," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 355-386.
- Jurate saltyte Benth & Fred Espen Benth & Paulius Jalinskas, 2007. "A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 823-841.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:592-602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.