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Putting a Price on Temperature

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  • FRED ESPEN BENTH
  • JŪRATĖ SALTYTĖ BENTH
  • STEEN KOEKEBAKKER

Abstract

This paper analyzes the weather derivatives traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), with futures and options written on different temperature indices. We propose to model the temperature dynamics as a continuous-time autoregressive process with lag "p" and seasonal variation. The choice ""p"=3" turns out to be sufficient to explain the temperature dynamics observed in Stockholm, Sweden, where we fit the model to more than 40 years of daily observations. The main finding is a clear seasonal variation in the regression residuals, where temperature shows high variability in winter, low in autumn and spring, and increasing variability towards the early summer. Our model allows for derivations of explicit prices for several futures and options. Note that the volatility term structure of futures written on the cumulative average temperature has a "modified" Samuelson effect, where the volatility prior to the measurement period increases, except for the last part, where it may decrease. Copyright 2007 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics..

Suggested Citation

  • FRED ESPEN BENTH & JŪRATĖ SALTYTĖ BENTH & STEEN KOEKEBAKKER, 2007. "Putting a Price on Temperature," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 34(4), pages 746-767.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:746-767
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9469.2007.00564.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fred Espen Benth & Jurate Saltyte-Benth, 2005. "Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-85.
    2. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    3. Dorje Brody & Joanna Syroka & Mihail Zervos, 2002. "Dynamical pricing of weather derivatives," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-198.
    4. Eckhard Platen & Jason West, 2004. "A Fair Pricing Approach to Weather Derivatives," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 23-53, March.
    5. M. Davis, 2001. "Pricing weather derivatives by marginal value," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 305-308, March.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Fred Espen Benth, 2003. "On arbitrage-free pricing of weather derivatives based on fractional Brownian motion," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 303-324.
    8. Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "A note on non-negative continuous time processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(4), pages 589-597.
    9. Peter Alaton & Boualem Djehiche & David Stillberger, 2002. "On modelling and pricing weather derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Wimmer, Maximilian, 2010. "The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1360-1370, June.
    2. Karl Härdle, Wolfgang & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Teng, Huei-Wen, 2015. "State price densities implied from weather derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 106-125.
    3. Benth, Fred Espen & Taib, Che Mohd Imran Che, 2013. "On the speed towards the mean for continuous time autoregressive moving average processes with applications to energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 259-268.
    4. Šaltytė Benth, Jūratė & Benth, Fred Espen, 2012. "A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 592-602.
    5. Elias, R.S. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2014. "A comparison of regime-switching temperature modeling approaches for applications in weather derivatives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(3), pages 549-560.
    6. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2016. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-126.
    7. Andrea Barth & Fred Espen Benth & Jurgen Potthoff, 2011. "Hedging of Spatial Temperature Risk with Market-Traded Futures," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 93-117.
    8. Fred Benth & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2009. "Pricing of Asian temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    9. Alexandridis, Antonis K. & Kampouridis, Michael & Cramer, Sam, 2017. "A comparison of wavelet networks and genetic programming in the context of temperature derivatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 21-47.
    10. Wolfgang Karl Hardle and Maria Osipenko, 2012. "Spatial Risk Premium on Weather Derivatives and Hedging Weather Exposure in Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    11. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
    12. Benth, Fred Espen & Saltyte Benth, Jurate, 2009. "Dynamic pricing of wind futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 16-24, January.

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