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A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance

Author

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  • Jurate saltyte Benth
  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Paulius Jalinskas

Abstract

We propose a spatial-temporal stochastic model for daily average surface temperature data. First, we build a model for a single spatial location, independently on the spatial information. The model includes trend, seasonality, and mean reversion, together with a seasonally dependent variance of the residuals. The spatial dependency is modelled by a Gaussian random field. Empirical fitting to data collected in 16 measurement stations in Lithuania over more than 40 years shows that our model captures the seasonality in the autocorrelation of the squared residuals, a property of temperature data already observed by other authors. We demonstrate through examples that our spatial-temporal model is applicable for prediction and classification.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurate saltyte Benth & Fred Espen Benth & Paulius Jalinskas, 2007. "A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 823-841.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:34:y:2007:i:7:p:823-841
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760701511398
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Barth & Fred Espen Benth & Jurgen Potthoff, 2011. "Hedging of Spatial Temperature Risk with Market-Traded Futures," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 93-117.
    2. Rosella Castellano & Roy Cerqueti & Giulia Rotundo, 2020. "Exploring the financial risk of a temperature index: a fractional integrated approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 284(1), pages 225-242, January.
    3. Naseri, Masoud & Baraldi, Piero & Compare, Michele & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Availability assessment of oil and gas processing plants operating under dynamic Arctic weather conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 66-82.
    4. Ghadimi, Saeed & Powell, Warren B., 2024. "Stochastic search for a parametric cost function approximation: Energy storage with rolling forecasts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(2), pages 641-652.
    5. Wolfgang Karl Hardle and Maria Osipenko, 2012. "Spatial Risk Premium on Weather Derivatives and Hedging Weather Exposure in Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    6. Benth, Fred Espen & Saltyte Benth, Jurate, 2009. "Dynamic pricing of wind futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 16-24, January.
    7. Che Mohd Imran Che Taib & Mukminah Darus, 2019. "Spatial-Temporal Modelling of Temperature for Pricing Temperature Index Insurance," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(1), pages 87-106, March.
    8. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth, 2012. "Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8457, January.
    9. Šaltytė Benth, Jūratė & Benth, Fred Espen, 2012. "A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 592-602.
    10. Erhardt, Tobias Michael & Czado, Claudia & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2015. "Spatial composite likelihood inference using local C-vines," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 74-88.
    11. Eirini Konstantinidi & Gkaren Papazian & George Skiadopoulos, 2015. "Modeling the Dynamics of Temperature with a View to Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 17, pages 511-544, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Papa Ousmane Cissé & Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2016. "Note on a new Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Separable Spatial Autoregressive Model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    13. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth & Steen Koekebakker, 2008. "Stochastic Modeling of Electricity and Related Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6811, January.

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