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A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance


  • Jurate saltyte Benth
  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Paulius Jalinskas


We propose a spatial-temporal stochastic model for daily average surface temperature data. First, we build a model for a single spatial location, independently on the spatial information. The model includes trend, seasonality, and mean reversion, together with a seasonally dependent variance of the residuals. The spatial dependency is modelled by a Gaussian random field. Empirical fitting to data collected in 16 measurement stations in Lithuania over more than 40 years shows that our model captures the seasonality in the autocorrelation of the squared residuals, a property of temperature data already observed by other authors. We demonstrate through examples that our spatial-temporal model is applicable for prediction and classification.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurate saltyte Benth & Fred Espen Benth & Paulius Jalinskas, 2007. "A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 823-841.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:34:y:2007:i:7:p:823-841 DOI: 10.1080/02664760701511398

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Schraepler, Joerg-Peter & Wagner, Gert G., 2003. "Identification, Characteristics and Impact of Faked Interviews in Surveys: An Analysis by Means of Genuine Fakes in the Raw Data of SOEP," IZA Discussion Papers 969, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Šaltytė Benth, Jūratė & Benth, Fred Espen, 2012. "A critical view on temperature modelling for application in weather derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 592-602.
    2. Andrea Barth & Fred Espen Benth & Jurgen Potthoff, 2011. "Hedging of Spatial Temperature Risk with Market-Traded Futures," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 93-117.
    3. Erhardt, Tobias Michael & Czado, Claudia & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2015. "Spatial composite likelihood inference using local C-vines," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 74-88.
    4. repec:eee:reensy:v:152:y:2016:i:c:p:66-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01278126 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Papa Ousmane Cissé & Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2016. "Note on a new Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Separable Spatial Autoregressive Model," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01278126, HAL.
    7. Papa Ousmane Cissé & Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2016. "Note on a new Seasonal Fractionally Integrated Separable Spatial Autoregressive Model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16013, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Benth, Fred Espen & Saltyte Benth, Jurate, 2009. "Dynamic pricing of wind futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 16-24, January.


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