Does green technology progress have a significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions?

Structural, economic and technological effects are the three key factors in the change of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Given the infeasibility of curbing economic growth and the limited impact of structural changes in the economy while ensuring basic well-being, green technology progress (GTP) is considered an effective path for achieving carbon reduction targets. However, existing research on how GTP affects CO2 emissions is incomplete. Therefore, we employ the spatial Durbin model to conduct an in-depth examination of the mechanism underpinning GTP regarding its impact on CO2 emissions based on 2008–2020 panel data on 30 Chinese provinces. The results show that, first, GTP has an evident “technological dividend”, which significantly inhibits local CO2 emissions; however, the spatial spillover effect of GTP is not remarkable due to insufficient technological spillover and mismatch of acceptability. Second, this paper identifies three potential transmission channels—the industrial structure, the energy structure, and energy efficiency—through which GTP effects CO2 emissions. Third, a substantial regional disparity exists in the influence of GTP on CO2 emissions, with the eastern region experiencing a notable reduction in carbon emissions due to GTP, whereas not significantly in the central and western regions. The innovation environment is a possible cause of regional heterogeneity: improving human capital and expanding the scale of technology market development have significant effects on reducing emissions through GTP, while the marginal emission reduction effect of government technology support is not significant. The findings presented in this study carry substantial implications for advancing toward low-carbon economic development and realizing the ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality.