Can New Quality Productivity Drive the Low-Carbon Transformation of Carbon-Intensive Industries? Macro and Micro Evidence from China

Reducing carbon dioxide emissions within carbon-intensive industries is a critical strategy to effectively combat global warming. The accelerated cultivation and enhancement of new quality productivity has created new momentum directed towards industrial low-carbon transformation. Using data from a sample of Chinese provinces and enterprises between 2011 and 2022, this study quantifies, evaluates, and explores the influence and mechanisms of new quality productivity on the low-carbon transformation of carbon-intensive industries. The research findings show that: (1) Fostering new quality productivity effectively promotes the low-carbon transformation of carbon-intensive industries and plays a positive, empowering role. Industrial innovation, digital stimulation, technological innovation, and green empowerment all support the low-carbon transformation of carbon-intensive industries, with their respective impacts gradually decreasing in turn. (2) Mechanism analysis confirms a chain transmission mechanism of “new quality productivity—environmental protection investment—green innovation—the transformation of carbon-intensive industries” at the macro-provincial level. In micro-level carbon-intensive enterprises, a positive U-shaped relationship between new quality productivity and low-carbon transformation of carbon-intensive industries is evident, and the main pathways include increasing low-carbon, energy-saving investment and improving the ESG performance of high-carbon emission enterprises. (3) Advancing transformation is more pronounced in central and western areas, high-carbon areas, non-carbon trading pilot areas, and non-energy-rich ecologically fragile areas. The government and enterprises should take advantage of the development opportunities of new quality productivity and adopt low-carbon behaviors to promote transformational development.