IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v303y2022i2p767-778.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Keyword portfolio optimization in paid search advertising

Author

Listed:
  • Symitsi, Efthymia
  • Markellos, Raphael N.
  • Mantrala, Murali K.

Abstract

This paper uses investment portfolio theory to determine budget allocation in paid online search advertising. The approach focuses on risk-adjusted performance and favors diversified portfolios of unrelated or negatively correlated keywords. An empirical investigation employs averages, variances and covariances for keyword popularities, which are estimated using growth rates for 15 major sectors taken from the Google Trends database. In line with portfolio theory, the results show that the average keyword popularity growth is strongly related to the standard deviation of growth for each keyword in the sample (R2=74%). Hypothesis testing of differences in Sharpe ratios documents a significantly better performance of the proposed approach compared to that of other strategies currently used by practitioners.

Suggested Citation

  • Symitsi, Efthymia & Markellos, Raphael N. & Mantrala, Murali K., 2022. "Keyword portfolio optimization in paid search advertising," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 767-778.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:303:y:2022:i:2:p:767-778
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.03.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722001953
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.03.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian & Weber, Martin, 2014. "How should individual investors diversify? An empirical evaluation of alternative asset allocation policies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 62-85.
    2. John L. Evans & Stephen H. Archer, 1968. "Diversification And The Reduction Of Dispersion: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 761-767, December.
    3. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    4. Duncan M. Holthausen, Jr. & Gert Assmus, 1982. "Advertising Budget Allocation under Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 487-499, May.
    5. Benjamin Edelman & Michael Ostrovsky & Michael Schwarz, 2007. "Internet Advertising and the Generalized Second-Price Auction: Selling Billions of Dollars Worth of Keywords," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 242-259, March.
    6. J. Eric Bickel, 2006. "Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(4), pages 233-251, December.
    7. Ledoit, Oliver & Wolf, Michael, 2008. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 850-859, December.
    8. Andrea Freyer Dugas & Mehdi Jalalpour & Yulia Gel & Scott Levin & Fred Torcaso & Takeru Igusa & Richard E Rothman, 2013. "Influenza Forecasting with Google Flu Trends," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-7, February.
    9. Preyas S. Desai & Woochoel Shin & Richard Staelin, 2014. "The Company That You Keep: When to Buy a Competitor's Keyword," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 485-508, July.
    10. Kim, Alex Jiyoung & Jang, Sungha & Shin, Hyun S., 2021. "How should retail advertisers manage multiple keywords in paid search advertising?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 539-551.
    11. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    12. Lynn Wu & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2015. "The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy, pages 89-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Oliver J. Rutz & Michael Trusov & Randolph E. Bucklin, 2011. "Modeling Indirect Effects of Paid Search Advertising: Which Keywords Lead to More Future Visits?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(4), pages 646-665, July.
    14. Vasant Dhar & Anindya Ghose, 2010. "Research Commentary ---Sponsored Search and Market Efficiency," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 760-772, December.
    15. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1977. "Risk Reduction and Portfolio Size: An Analytical Solution," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 415-437, October.
    16. Statman, Meir, 1987. "How Many Stocks Make a Diversified Portfolio?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 353-363, September.
    17. Simeon Vosen & Torsten Schmidt, 2011. "Forecasting private consumption: survey‐based indicators vs. Google trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 565-578, September.
    18. Yang, Wei & Xiao, Baichun & Wu, Lifang, 2020. "Learning and pricing models for repeated generalized second-price auction in search advertising," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 696-711.
    19. de Kluyver, C. A. & Baird, F. T., 1984. "Media selection by mean-variance analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 152-156, May.
    20. Brick, Ivan E & Jagpal, Harsharanjeet S, 1984. "Utility Theory, Value Maximization and the Quality Decision under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 369-377, June.
    21. Tunuguntla, Vaishnavi & Basu, Preetam & Rakshit, Krishanu & Ghosh, Debabrata, 2019. "Sponsored search advertising and dynamic pricing for perishable products under inventory-linked customer willingness to pay," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 119-132.
    22. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    23. Jagpal, Sharan, 2008. "Fusion for Profit: How Marketing and Finance Can Work Together to Create Value," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195371055, Decembrie.
    24. Söhnke M. Bartram & Gregory W. Brown & Frank R. Fehle, 2009. "International Evidence on Financial Derivatives Usage," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 185-206, March.
    25. Rachev, Svetlozar & Jasic, Teo & Stoyanov, Stoyan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2007. "Momentum strategies based on reward-risk stock selection criteria," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    26. Li, Xiang & Qi, Xiangtong & Li, Yongjian, 2021. "On sales effort and pricing decisions under alternative risk criteria," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 603-614.
    27. Harsharanjeet S. Jagpal & Ivan E. Brick, 1982. "The Marketing Mix Decision Under Uncertainty," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 79-92.
    28. Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Markellos, Raphael N., 2012. "Information demand and stock market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1808-1821.
    29. Abou Nabout, Nadia & Lilienthal, Markus & Skiera, Bernd, 2014. "Empirical Generalizations in Search Engine Advertising," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 206-216.
    30. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2018. "Robust performance hypothesis testing with smooth functions of population moments," ECON - Working Papers 305, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    31. S. Waite Rawls & Charles W. Smithson, 1990. "Strategic Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 2(4), pages 6-18, January.
    32. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
    33. Lizhen Xu & Jason A. Duan & Andrew Whinston, 2014. "Path to Purchase: A Mutually Exciting Point Process Model for Online Advertising and Conversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1392-1412, June.
    34. Anindya Ghose & Sha Yang, 2009. "An Empirical Analysis of Search Engine Advertising: Sponsored Search in Electronic Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(10), pages 1605-1622, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian & Weber, Martin, 2014. "How should individual investors diversify? An empirical evaluation of alternative asset allocation policies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 62-85.
    2. Oehler, Andreas & Wanger, Hans Philipp, 2020. "Household portfolio optimization with XTFs? An empirical study using the SHS-base," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Fu, Yufen & Blazenko, George W., 2017. "Normative portfolio theory," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 240-251.
    4. Haensly, Paul J., 2022. "Lessons from naïve diversification about the risk-reward trade-off," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Trinks, Arjan & Scholtens, Bert & Mulder, Machiel & Dam, Lammertjan, 2017. "Divesting Fossil Fuels," Research Report 17001-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    6. Eom, Cheoljun & Kaizoji, Taisei & Livan, Giacomo & Scalas, Enrico, 2021. "Limitations of portfolio diversification through fat tails of the return Distributions: Some empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Stadtmüller, Immo & Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2022. "On the benefits of active stock selection strategies for diversified investors," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 342-354.
    8. Haensly, Paul J., 2020. "Risk decomposition, estimation error, and naïve diversification," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Livio Fenga, 2020. "Filtering and prediction of noisy and unstable signals: The case of Google Trends data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 281-295, March.
    10. Trinks, Arjan & Scholtens, Bert & Mulder, Machiel & Dam, Lammertjan, 2017. "Divesting Fossil Fuels: The Implications for Investment Portfolios," MPRA Paper 76383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Oikonomou, Ioannis & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sutcliffe, Charles, 2018. "Socially responsible investment portfolios: Does the optimization process matter?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 379-401.
    12. Tasca, Paolo & Mavrodiev, Pavlin & Schweitzer, Frank, 2014. "Quantifying the impact of leveraging and diversification on systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 43-52.
    13. Paolo Tasca & Stefano Battiston, "undated". "Diversification and Financial Stability," Working Papers CCSS-11-001, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
    14. Darius Schlangenotto & Martin Poniatowski & Dennis Kundisch, 2018. "What Drives Paid Search Success: A Systematic Literature Review," Working Papers Dissertations 31, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    15. Ayub, Usman & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Abbas, Qaisar, 2015. "Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-96.
    16. Coble, David & Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "Nowcasting Building Permits with Google Trends," MPRA Paper 76514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tasca, Paolo & Battiston, Stefano & Deghi, Andrea, 2017. "Portfolio diversification and systemic risk in interbank networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 96-124.
    18. Marie Brière & Bastien Drut & Valérie Mignon & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2013. "Is the Market Portfolio Efficient? A New Test of Mean-Variance Efficiency when all Assets are Risky," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 34(1), pages 7-41.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9297 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Andrey Simonov & Shawndra Hill, 2021. "Competitive Advertising on Brand Search: Traffic Stealing and Click Quality," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(5), pages 923-945, September.
    21. Kim, Alex Jiyoung & Jang, Sungha & Shin, Hyun S., 2021. "How should retail advertisers manage multiple keywords in paid search advertising?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 539-551.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:303:y:2022:i:2:p:767-778. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.