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Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty

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  • Filomena, Tiago Pascoal
  • Campos-Náñez, Enrique
  • Duffey, Michael Robert

Abstract

We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.

Suggested Citation

  • Filomena, Tiago Pascoal & Campos-Náñez, Enrique & Duffey, Michael Robert, 2014. "Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 125-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:232:y:2014:i:1:p:125-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.07.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hach, Daniel & Chyong, Chi Kong & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Capacity market design options: A dynamic capacity investment model and a GB case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 691-705.
    2. Chen, Liang & Kettunen, Janne, 2017. "Is certainty in carbon policy better than uncertainty?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(1), pages 230-243.
    3. repec:spr:orspec:v:40:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00291-018-0509-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Liu, Cengceng & Li, Nan & Zha, Donglan, 2016. "On the impact of FIT policies on renewable energy investment: Based on the solar power support policies in China's power market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-267.
    5. repec:eee:ejores:v:266:y:2018:i:3:p:1086-1099 is not listed on IDEAS

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