Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty
We analyze the problem of technology selection and capacity investment for electricity generation in a competitive environment under uncertainty. Adopting a Nash-Cournot competition model, we consider the marginal cost as the uncertain parameter, although the results can be easily generalized to other sources of uncertainty such as a load curve. In the model, firms make three different decisions: (i) the portfolio of technologies, (ii) each technology’s capacity and (iii) the technology’s production level for every scenario. The decisions related to the portfolio and capacity are ex-ante and the production level is ex-post to the realization of uncertainty. We discuss open and closed-loop models, with the aim to understand the relationship between different technologies’ cost structures and the portfolio of generation technologies adopted by firms in equilibrium. For a competitive setting, to the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first not only to explicitly discuss the relation between costs and generation portfolio but also to allow firms to choose a portfolio of technologies. We show that portfolio diversification arises even with risk-neutral firms and technologies with different cost expectations. We also investigate conditions on the probability and cost under which different equilibria of the game arise.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 232 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Veronika Grimm & Gregor Zoettl, 2006. "Access to Commitment Devices Reduces Investment Incentives in Oligopoly," Working Paper Series in Economics 25, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
- Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 358-387, November.
- GABSZEWICZ, Jean J. & PODDAR , Sougata, 1995.
"Demand Fluctuations and Capacity Utilization under Duopoly,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1995051, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jean J. Gabszewicz & Sougata Poddar, 1997. "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(1), pages 131-146.
- Gabszewicz, J.J. & Poddar, S., "undated". "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1269, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Sting, Fabian J. & Huchzermeier, Arnd, 2010. "Ensuring responsive capacity: How to contract with backup suppliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 725-735, December.
- Genc, Talat S. & Reynolds, Stanley S. & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2007. "Dynamic oligopolistic games under uncertainty: A stochastic programming approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 55-80, January.
- Georg Götz, 2005. "Market Size, Technology Choice, and the Existence of Free-Entry Cournot Equilibrium," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 503-503, September.
- Pedro Linares & Francisco Javier Santos & Mariano Ventosa & Luis Lapiedra, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emissions Trading Scheme Directive and Permit Assignment Methods on the Spanish Electricity Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 79-98.
- Augusto Rupérez-Micola & Albert Banal-Estañol, 2007.
"Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices,"
Economics Working Papers
1083, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez Micola, 2009. "Composition of Electricity Generation Portfolios, Pivotal Dynamics, and Market Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1813-1831, November.
- ZOETTL, Gregor, 2008.
"On investment decisions in liberalized electricity markets: the impact of price caps at the spot market,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Gregor, ZOETTL, 2008. "On investment decisions in liberalized electricity markets : the impact of price caps at the spot market," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008028, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 261-290, November.
- Murto, Pauli & Nasakkala, Erkka & Keppo, Jussi, 2004. "Timing of investments in oligopoly under uncertainty: A framework for numerical analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 486-500, September.
- Alfredo Garcia & Juan Alzate & Jorge Barrera, 2012. "Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 315-336, June.
- Ventosa, Mariano & Baillo, Alvaro & Ramos, Andres & Rivier, Michel, 2005. "Electricity market modeling trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 897-913, May.
- Oliveira, Fernando, 2008. "The value of information in electricity investment games," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2364-2375, July.
- Kleindorfer, Paul R. & Wu, D. -J. & Fernando, Chitru S., 2001. "Strategic gaming in electric power markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 156-168, April.
- Bunn, Derek W. & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2007. "Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialization in electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1265-1278, September.
- Genc, Talat S. & Sen, Suvrajeet, 2008. "An analysis of capacity and price trajectories for the Ontario electricity market using dynamic Nash equilibrium under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 173-191, January.
- Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Rasata, Hasina & Zaccour, Georges, 2011. "Impact of some parameters on investments in oligopolistic electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 180-195, August.
- Manu Goyal & Serguei Netessine, 2007. "Strategic Technology Choice and Capacity Investment Under Demand Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 192-207, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:232:y:2014:i:1:p:125-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.