IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1621.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does risk aversion affect transmission and generation planning? A Western North America case study

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco D. Munoz

    (Facultad de Ingeniería y Ciencias, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Peñalolén, Santiago, Chile)

  • Adriaan Hendrik van der Weijde

    (School of Engineering, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh)

  • Benjamin F. Hobbs

    (Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA.)

  • Jean-Paul Watson

    (Department of Discrete Math and Optimization, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, USA.)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market. To do so, we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk (CVaR). We show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk-averse Stackelberg equilibrium, in which a risk-averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk-averse generators maximize profits. This model is then applied to a 240-bus representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, in which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment. Although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level, state-level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant, which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco D. Munoz & Adriaan Hendrik van der Weijde & Benjamin F. Hobbs & Jean-Paul Watson, 2016. "Does risk aversion affect transmission and generation planning? A Western North America case study," Working Papers EPRG 1621, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1621
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/eprg-wp1621.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    2. Hugonnier, Julien & Morellec, Erwan, 2007. "Corporate control and real investment in incomplete markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1781-1800, May.
    3. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    4. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    5. Francisco Munoz & Enzo Sauma & Benjamin Hobbs, 2013. "Approximations in power transmission planning: implications for the cost and performance of renewable portfolio standards," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 305-338, June.
    6. EHRENMANN, Andreas & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "Generation capacity expansion in a risky environment: a stochastic equilibrium analysis," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2379, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    7. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 358-387, November.
    8. Pozo, David & Contreras, Javier & Sauma, Enzo, 2013. "If you build it, he will come: Anticipative power transmission planning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 135-146.
    9. van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The economics of planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage optimisation to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2089-2101.
    10. Fuss, Sabine & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael & Gusti, Mykola, 2008. "Investment under market and climate policy uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(8), pages 708-721, August.
    11. Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2011. "Stochastic Equilibrium Models for Generation Capacity Expansion," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Marida Bertocchi & Giorgio Consigli & Michael A. H. Dempster (ed.), Stochastic Optimization Methods in Finance and Energy, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 273-310, Springer.
    12. Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn and William Blyth & Derek W. Bunn & William Blyth, 2011. "Investment Propensities under Carbon Policy Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-118.
    13. Willems, Bert & Morbee, Joris, 2010. "Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 786-795, July.
    14. Qipeng P. Zheng & Panos M. Pardalos, 2010. "Stochastic and Risk Management Models and Solution Algorithm for Natural Gas Transmission Network Expansion and LNG Terminal Location Planning," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 337-357, November.
    15. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Wu, Jung-Hua, 2008. "A portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-641, February.
    16. Andres P. Perez, Enzo E. Sauma, Francisco D. Munoz, and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2016. "The Economic Effects of Interregional Trading of Renewable Energy Certificates in the U.S. WECC," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    17. Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2011. "Generation Capacity Expansion in a Risky Environment: A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1332-1346, December.
    18. Neuhoff, Karsten & De Vries, Laurens, 2004. "Insufficient incentives for investment in electricity generations," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 253-267, December.
    19. Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
    20. Karsten Neuhoff & Laurens De Vries, 2004. "Insufficient Incentives for Investment," Working Papers EP42, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    21. Kamalinia, Saeed & Shahidehpour, Mohammad & Wu, Lei, 2014. "Sustainable resource planning in energy markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 112-120.
    22. Ruiz, C. & Conejo, A.J., 2015. "Robust transmission expansion planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 390-401.
    23. Hu, Ming-Che & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2010. "Analysis of multi-pollutant policies for the U.S. power sector under technology and policy uncertainty using MARKAL," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5430-5442.
    24. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2015. "Short-term uncertainty in long-term energy system models — A case study of wind power in Denmark," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 157-167.
    25. Lin Fan & Benjamin F. Hobbs & Catherine S. Norman, 2010. "Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications," Working Papers EPRG 1014, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    26. Fan, Lin & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Norman, Catherine S., 2010. "Risk aversion and CO2 regulatory uncertainty in power generation investment: Policy and modeling implications," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 193-208, November.
    27. Go, Roderick S. & Munoz, Francisco D. & Watson, Jean-Paul, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of co-optimized grid-scale energy storage investments in supporting high renewable portfolio standards," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 902-913.
    28. L. Eeckhoudt & C. Gollier & H. Schlesinger, 2005. "Economic and financial decisions under risk," Post-Print hal-00325882, HAL.
    29. Barradale, Merrill Jones, 2010. "Impact of public policy uncertainty on renewable energy investment: Wind power and the production tax credit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7698-7709, December.
    30. John M. Mulvey & Robert J. Vanderbei & Stavros A. Zenios, 1995. "Robust Optimization of Large-Scale Systems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 264-281, April.
    31. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 261-290, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ambrosius, Mirjam & Egerer, Jonas & Grimm, Veronika & van der Weijde, Adriaan H., 2022. "Risk aversion in multilevel electricity market models with different congestion pricing regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    2. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    3. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    4. Ambrosius, M. & Egerer, J. & Grimm, V. & Weijde, A.H. van der, 2020. "Uncertain bidding zone configurations: The role of expectations for transmission and generation capacity expansion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 343-359.
    5. Bergen, Matías & Muñoz, Francisco D., 2018. "Quantifying the effects of uncertain climate and environmental policies on investments and carbon emissions: A case study of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 261-273.
    6. Go, Roderick S. & Munoz, Francisco D. & Watson, Jean-Paul, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of co-optimized grid-scale energy storage investments in supporting high renewable portfolio standards," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 902-913.
    7. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    8. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2018. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 27, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    9. van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2012. "The economics of planning electricity transmission to accommodate renewables: Using two-stage optimisation to evaluate flexibility and the cost of disregarding uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2089-2101.
    10. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    11. Bublitz, Andreas & Keles, Dogan & Zimmermann, Florian & Fraunholz, Christoph & Fichtner, Wolf, 2019. "A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1059-1078.
    12. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Inzunza, Andrés & Muñoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2021. "Measuring the effects of environmental policies on electricity markets risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Han Shu & Jacob Mays, 2022. "Beyond capacity: contractual form in electricity reliability obligations," Papers 2210.10858, arXiv.org.
    15. Dane A. Schiro & Benjamin F. Hobbs & Jong-Shi Pang, 2016. "Perfectly competitive capacity expansion games with risk-averse participants," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 511-539, November.
    16. Pérez Odeh, Rodrigo & Watts, David & Flores, Yarela, 2018. "Planning in a changing environment: Applications of portfolio optimisation to deal with risk in the electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 3808-3823.
    17. Thomas Mobius & Iegor Riepin & Felix Musgens & Adriaan H. van der Weijde, 2021. "Risk aversion in flexible electricity markets," Papers 2110.04088, arXiv.org.
    18. Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Fuss, Sabine, 2016. "Investment risks in power generation: A comparison of fossil fuel and renewable energy dominated markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-185.
    19. Ribó-Pérez, David & Van der Weijde, Adriaan H. & Álvarez-Bel, Carlos, 2019. "Effects of self-generation in imperfectly competitive electricity markets: The case of Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Rodilla, Pablo & García-González, Javier & Baíllo, Álvaro & Cerisola, Santiago & Batlle, Carlos, 2015. "Hydro resource management, risk aversion and equilibrium in an incomplete electricity market setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 365-382.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk aversion; stochastic programming; transmission planning; generation planning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1621. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ruth Newman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jicamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.