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Consumption in the shadow of unemployment

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  • Campos, Rodolfo G.
  • Reggio, Iliana

Abstract

By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a one point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong reduction in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This reduction is consistent with forward-looking agents responding to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates: the shadow of unemployment. Using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was truly a reduction in quantities, and not a switch to cheaper alternatives.

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  • Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2015. "Consumption in the shadow of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 39-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:39-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.04.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Da Silva, António Dias & Rusinova, Desislava & Weißler, Marco, 2023. "Consumption effects of job loss expectations: new evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2817, European Central Bank.
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    3. Zizza, Roberta & Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, 2017. "Regular versus lump-sum payments in union contracts and household consumption," Working Paper Series 2013, European Central Bank.
    4. Nuno Cassola & Paul De Grauwe & Claudio Morana & Patrizio Tirelli, 2021. "The risks of exiting too early the policy responses to the COVID-19 recession," Working Paper series 21-22, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    5. Tran Nguyen Van, 2022. "Understanding Household Consumption Behaviour: What do we Learn from a Developing Country?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 801-858, October.
    6. Antelo, Manel & Magdalena, Pilar & Reboredo, Juan C., 2017. "Economic crisis and the unemployment effect on household food expenditure: The case of Spain," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 11-24.
    7. Brindusa Anghel & Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2023. "The growth in permanent contracts and its potential impact on spending," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q1.
    8. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2015. "Consumption in the shadow of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 39-54.
    9. Bermejo, Vicente J. & Campos, Rodolfo G. & Abad, José M., 2015. "How does easing liquidity constraints affect aggregate employment?," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb1504, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    10. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2016. "Optimal unemployment insurance: Consumption versus expenditure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-89.
    11. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ezgi Kaya, 2020. "Not just a work permit: EU citizenship and the consumption behaviour of documented and undocumented immigrants," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1552-1598, November.
    12. Lugilde, Alba, 2018. "Does income uncertainty affect Spanish household consumption?," MPRA Paper 87110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2014. "El impacto de la crisis en el deterioro alimentario en España," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2014-04, July.
    14. Ramesh CHANDRA DAS & Kamal RAY, 2019. "Long Run Relationships And Short Run Dynamics Among Unemployment And Demand Components: A Study On Sri Lanka, India And Bangladesh," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 107-120, June.
    15. repec:cte:wbrepe:wb1503 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nathaniel Hendren, 2017. "Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1778-1823, July.
    17. George Kapetanios & Nora Neuteboom & Feiko Ritsema & Alexia Ventouri, 2022. "How did consumers react to the COVID‐19 pandemic over time?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 961-993, October.
    18. Brindusa Anghel & Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2019. "The household saving rate in Spain between 2007 and 2016: decomposition by population group and possible determinants," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
    19. Antonio Chirumbolo & Antonino Callea & Flavio Urbini, 2021. "The Effect of Job Insecurity and Life Uncertainty on Everyday Consumptions and Broader Life Projects during COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-20, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Unemployment; Life-cycle models; Spain; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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