IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v78y2015icp39-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Consumption in the shadow of unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Campos, Rodolfo G.
  • Reggio, Iliana

Abstract

By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a one point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong reduction in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This reduction is consistent with forward-looking agents responding to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates: the shadow of unemployment. Using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was truly a reduction in quantities, and not a switch to cheaper alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2015. "Consumption in the shadow of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 39-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:39-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.04.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292115000628
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.04.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "The Consumption Response to Income Changes," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 479-506, September.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
    3. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    4. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2014. "Measurement error in imputation procedures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 197-202.
    5. John Campbell & Angus Deaton, 1989. "Why is Consumption So Smooth?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 357-373.
    6. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bewley, Truman, 1977. "The permanent income hypothesis: A theoretical formulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 252-292, December.
    8. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2006. "Current consumption and future income growth: Synthetic panel evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2239-2266, November.
    9. Browning, Martin & Crossley, Thomas F., 2001. "Unemployment insurance benefit levels and consumption changes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-23, April.
    10. Joseph G. Altonji & Aloysius Siow, 1987. "Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes with (Noisy) Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 293-328.
    11. Gervais, Martin & Klein, Paul, 2010. "Measuring consumption smoothing in CEX data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 988-999, November.
    12. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2007. "Life-Cycle Prices and Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1533-1559, December.
    13. James Costain & Juan F. Jimeno & Carlos Thomas, 2010. "Employment fluctuations in a dual labour market," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue APR, pages 129-137, April.
    14. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    15. Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Loss Expectations, Realizations, and Household Consumption Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 253-269, February.
    16. Slesnick, Daniel T, 1992. "Aggregate Consumption and Saving in the Postwar United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 585-597, November.
    17. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Consumption Smoothing Benefits of Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 192-205, March.
    18. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    19. Andrew Benito, 2006. "Does job insecurity affect household consumption?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 157-181, January.
    20. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2003. "Cluster-Sample Methods in Applied Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 133-138, May.
    21. Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2010. "The response of household wealth to the risk of losing the job: evidence from differences in firing costs," Working Papers 1002, Banco de España.
    22. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2015. "Consumption in the shadow of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 39-54.
    23. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2005. "Consumption versus Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 919-948, October.
    24. Melvin Stephens, 2001. "The Long-Run Consumption Effects Of Earnings Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 28-36, February.
    25. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    26. Brindusa Anghel & Sara de la Rica & Aitor Lacuesta, 2013. "Employment polarisation in Spain over the course of the 1997-2012 cycle," Working Papers 1321, Banco de España.
    27. Moulton, Brent R, 1990. "An Illustration of a Pitfall in Estimating the Effects of Aggregate Variables on Micro Unit," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 334-338, May.
    28. María José Luengo‐Prado & Almudena Sevilla, 2013. "Time to Cook: Expenditure at Retirement in Spain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 764-789, June.
    29. Skinner, Jonathan, 1987. "A superior measure of consumption from the panel study of income dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 213-216.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Cassola & Paul De Grauwe & Claudio Morana & Patrizio Tirelli, 2021. "The risks of exiting too early the policy responses to the COVID-19 recession," Working Paper series 21-22, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Antelo, Manel & Magdalena, Pilar & Reboredo, Juan C., 2017. "Economic crisis and the unemployment effect on household food expenditure: The case of Spain," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 11-24.
    3. Alba Lugilde, 2024. "The impact of measured income uncertainty on Spanish household consumption at the end of the Great Recession," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 679-702, August.
    4. Brindusa Anghel & Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2023. "The growth in permanent contracts and its potential impact on spending," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2023/Q1.
    5. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ezgi Kaya, 2020. "Not just a work permit: EU citizenship and the consumption behaviour of documented and undocumented immigrants," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1552-1598, November.
    6. Da Silva, António Dias & Rusinova, Desislava & Weißler, Marco, 2023. "Consumption effects of job loss expectations: new evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2817, European Central Bank.
    7. Lugilde, Alba, 2018. "Does income uncertainty affect Spanish household consumption?," MPRA Paper 87110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2015. "Consumption in the shadow of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 39-54.
    9. Antonio Chirumbolo & Antonino Callea & Flavio Urbini, 2021. "The Effect of Job Insecurity and Life Uncertainty on Everyday Consumptions and Broader Life Projects during COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Zizza, Roberta & Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, 2017. "Regular versus lump-sum payments in union contracts and household consumption," Working Paper Series 2013, European Central Bank.
    11. Tran Nguyen Van, 2022. "Understanding Household Consumption Behaviour: What do we Learn from a Developing Country?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 801-858, October.
    12. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Abad, José M. & Bermejo, Vicente J., 2015. "How does easing liquidity constraints affect aggregate employment?," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB wb1504, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    13. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2016. "Optimal unemployment insurance: Consumption versus expenditure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-89.
    14. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2014. "El impacto de la crisis en el deterioro alimentario en España," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2014-04, July.
    15. Brindusa Anghel & Cristina Barceló & Ernesto Villanueva, 2019. "The household saving rate in Spain between 2007 and 2016: decomposition by population group and possible determinants," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
    16. Sala, Hector & Trivín, Pedro, 2022. "Family Finances and Debt Overhang: Evolving Consumption Patterns of Spanish Households," IZA Discussion Papers 15222, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Ramesh CHANDRA DAS & Kamal RAY, 2019. "Long Run Relationships And Short Run Dynamics Among Unemployment And Demand Components: A Study On Sri Lanka, India And Bangladesh," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 107-120, June.
    18. repec:cte:wbrepe:wb1503 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Nathaniel Hendren, 2017. "Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1778-1823, July.
    20. George Kapetanios & Nora Neuteboom & Feiko Ritsema & Alexia Ventouri, 2022. "How did consumers react to the COVID‐19 pandemic over time?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 961-993, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathaniel Hendren, 2017. "Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1778-1823, July.
    2. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Reggio, Iliana, 2016. "Optimal unemployment insurance: Consumption versus expenditure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-89.
    4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Rossana Merola, 2019. "Consumption and credit constraints: a model and evidence from Ireland," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 475-503, August.
    5. Scott Ross Baker & Contantine Yannelis, 2017. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 99-124, January.
    6. Dirk Krueger & Egor Malkov & Fabrizio Perri, 2023. "How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?," Staff Report 655, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Tran Nguyen Van, 2022. "Understanding Household Consumption Behaviour: What do we Learn from a Developing Country?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 801-858, October.
    8. Daria Pignalosa, 2021. "The Euler Equation Approach: Critical Implications of Recent Developments in the Theory of Intertemporal Choice," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 15(1), pages 1-43, June.
    9. Da Silva, António Dias & Rusinova, Desislava & Weißler, Marco, 2023. "Consumption effects of job loss expectations: new evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2817, European Central Bank.
    10. Apostolos Fasianos & Reamonn Lydon, 2022. "Do households with debt cut back their consumption more? New evidence from the United Kingdom," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 737-760, July.
    11. Alegre, Joaquín & Mateo, Sara & Pou, Llorenç, 2013. "Tourism participation and expenditure by Spanish households: The effects of the economic crisis and unemployment," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 37-49.
    12. Martin Beznoska & Richard Ochmann, 2012. "Liquidity Constraints and the Permanent Income Hypothesis: Pseudo Panel Estimation with German Consumption Survey Data," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1231, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Antelo, Manel & Magdalena, Pilar & Reboredo, Juan C., 2017. "Economic crisis and the unemployment effect on household food expenditure: The case of Spain," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 11-24.
    14. Lage, Maureen J., 1997. "The permanent income hypothesis under permanent-transitory confusion," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 77-90, February.
    15. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.
    16. Mairead Roiste & Apostolos Fasianos & Robert Kirkby & Fang Yao, 2021. "Are Housing Wealth Effects Asymmetric in Booms and Busts?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 578-628, May.
    17. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2016. "The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(6), pages 1563-1618.
    18. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. Meyer, Bruce D. & Mok, Wallace K.C., 2019. "Disability, earnings, income and consumption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 51-69.
    20. Christos A. Makridis & Michael Ohlrogge, 2022. "Foreclosure spillovers and individual well‐being: Evidence from the Great Recession," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 122-146, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Unemployment; Life-cycle models; Spain; Great Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:78:y:2015:i:c:p:39-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.