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Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood

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  • Su, Liangjun
  • White, Halbert

Abstract

We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time series indicate that our tests reveal some interesting nonlinear causal relations which the traditional linear Granger causality test fails to detect.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 27-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:182:y:2014:i:1:p:27-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.006
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    2. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
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    4. Dai, Shengtao & Song, Xiaojun, 2025. "Consistent tests for semiparametric conditional independence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Xu, Kai & Cheng, Qing, 2024. "Test of conditional independence in factor models via Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    6. Bertrand Candelon & Sessi Tokpavi, 2016. "A Nonparametric Test for Granger Causality in Distribution With Application to Financial Contagion," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 240-253, April.
    7. Omar Vazquez & Sharon X. Xie, 2025. "Robust inverse probability weighted estimators for doubly truncated Cox regression with closed-form standard errors," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 364-393, April.
    8. Wang, Hongfei & Liu, Binghui & Feng, Long & Ma, Yanyuan, 2024. "Rank-based max-sum tests for mutual independence of high-dimensional random vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
    9. Zhou, Yeqing & Liu, Jingyuan & Zhu, Liping, 2020. "Test for conditional independence with application to conditional screening," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Su, Liangjun & Zheng, Xin, 2017. "A martingale-difference-divergence-based test for specification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 162-167.
    11. Azadkia, Mona & Chatterjee, Sourav, 2021. "A simple measure of conditional dependence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125584, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Xiaojun Song & Haoyu Wei, 2021. "Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Independence for Time Series," Papers 2110.04847, arXiv.org.
    13. Ersin Sünbül, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 70(1), pages 57-70, March.
    14. Xuehu Zhu & Jun Lu & Jun Zhang & Lixing Zhu, 2021. "Testing for conditional independence: A groupwise dimension reduction‐based adaptive‐to‐model approach," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(2), pages 549-576, June.
    15. Fan, Jianqing & Feng, Yang & Xia, Lucy, 2020. "A projection-based conditional dependence measure with applications to high-dimensional undirected graphical models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 119-139.
    16. Ai, Chunrong & Sun, Li-Hsien & Zhang, Zheng & Zhu, Liping, 2024. "Testing unconditional and conditional independence via mutual information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(2).
    17. Zhang, Yaowu & Zhou, Yeqing & Zhu, Liping, 2024. "A post-screening diagnostic study for ultrahigh dimensional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).

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    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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