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Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood

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  • Su, Liangjun
  • White, Halbert

Abstract

We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time series indicate that our tests reveal some interesting nonlinear causal relations which the traditional linear Granger causality test fails to detect.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 27-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:182:y:2014:i:1:p:27-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional independence; Empirical likelihood; Granger causality; Local smoothed bootstrap; Nonlinear dependence; Nonparametric regression; U-statistics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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