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Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood

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  • Su, Liangjun
  • White, Halbert

Abstract

We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time series indicate that our tests reveal some interesting nonlinear causal relations which the traditional linear Granger causality test fails to detect.

Suggested Citation

  • Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Testing conditional independence via empirical likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 27-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:182:y:2014:i:1:p:27-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. de Luna, Xavier & Waernbaum, Ingeborg, 2005. "Covariate selection for non-parametric estimation of treatment effects," Working Paper Series 2005:4, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    2. Huang, Meng & Sun, Yixiao & White, Halbert, 2016. "A Flexible Nonparametric Test For Conditional Independence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(06), pages 1434-1482, December.
    3. Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2006. "Smoothed Empirical Likelihood Methods For Quantile Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 173-205, April.
    4. Hoderlein, Stefan & Su, Liangjun & White, Halbert & Yang, Thomas Tao, 2016. "Testing for monotonicity in unobservables under unconfoundedness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 183-202.
    5. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2011. "Nonparametric Copula-Based Test for Conditional Independence with Applications to Granger Causality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 275-287, October.
    6. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
    7. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Otsu, Taisuke, 2012. "Local GMM estimation of time series models with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 476-490.
    8. repec:eee:ecolet:v:156:y:2017:i:c:p:162-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christophe Dutang, 2012. "The customer, the insurer and the market," Post-Print hal-01616152, HAL.
    10. Kyungchul Song, 2007. "Testing Conditional Independence via Rosenblatt Transforms," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-026, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional independence; Empirical likelihood; Granger causality; Local smoothed bootstrap; Nonlinear dependence; Nonparametric regression; U-statistics;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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