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The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?

Author

Listed:
  • Bonney, Kathryn
  • Breaux, Cory
  • Buffington, Catherine
  • Dinlersoz, Emin
  • Foster, Lucia
  • Goldschlag, Nathan
  • Haltiwanger, John
  • Kroff, Zachary
  • Savage, Keith

Abstract

Will the adoption of AI by businesses substitute for worker tasks or jobs? This is a core question for which relatively scarce evidence exists—especially in the wake of recent advances in generative AI. Using a new large-scale business survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that AI use is having a much greater impact on worker tasks than on employment levels at the firm level. About 27% of firms using AI report replacing worker tasks, but only about 5% experience employment change due to AI use. These rates are expected to increase to nearly 35% and 12%, respectively, in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonney, Kathryn & Breaux, Cory & Buffington, Catherine & Dinlersoz, Emin & Foster, Lucia & Goldschlag, Nathan & Haltiwanger, John & Kroff, Zachary & Savage, Keith, 2024. "The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111971
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Autor, 2024. "Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs," NBER Working Papers 32140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kristina McElheran & J. Frank Li & Erik Brynjolfsson & Zachary Kroff & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "AI adoption in America: Who, what, and where," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 375-415, March.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Gary W. Anderson & David N. Beede & Catherine Buffington & Eric E. Childress & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia S. Foster & Nathan Goldschlag & John Haltiwanger & Zachary Kroff & Pascual Restre, 2024. "Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey," NBER Chapters, in: Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, pages 13-55, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Babina, Tania & Fedyk, Anastassia & He, Alex & Hodson, James, 2024. "Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Kathryn Bonney & Cory Breaux & Cathy Buffington & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia S. Foster & Nathan Goldschlag & John C. Haltiwanger & Zachary Kroff & Keith Savage, 2024. "Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey," NBER Working Papers 32319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    7. Catherine Buffington & Lucia Foster & Colin Shevlin, 2023. "Measuring Business Trends and Outlook through a New Survey," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 140-144, May.
    8. Flavio Calvino & Luca Fontanelli, 2023. "A portrait of AI adopters across countries: Firm characteristics, assets’ complementarities and productivity," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2023/02, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia-Lazaro, Aida & Mendez-Astudillo, Jorge & Lattanzio, Susan & Larkin, Charles & Newnes, Linda, 2025. "The digital skill premium: Evidence from job vacancy data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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