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Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Kathryn Bonney
  • Cory Breaux
  • Catherine Buffington
  • Emin Dinlersoz
  • Lucia Foster
  • Nathan Goldschlag
  • John Haltiwanger
  • Zachary Kroff
  • Keith Savage

Abstract

Timely and accurate measurement of AI use by firms is both challenging and crucial for understanding the impacts of AI on the U.S. economy. We provide new, real-time estimates of current and expected future use of AI for business purposes based on the Business Trends and Outlook Survey for September 2023 to February 2024. During this period, bi-weekly estimates of AI use rate rose from 3.7% to 5.4%, with an expected rate of about 6.6% by early Fall 2024. The fraction of workers at businesses that use AI is higher, especially for large businesses and in the Information sector. AI use is higher in large firms but the relationship between AI use and firm size is non-monotonic. In contrast, AI use is higher in young firms. Common uses of AI include marketing automation, virtual agents, and data/text analytics. AI users often utilize AI to substitute for worker tasks and equipment/software, but few report reductions in employment due to AI use. Many firms undergo organizational changes to accommodate AI, particularly by training staff, developing new workflows, and purchasing cloud services/storage. AI users also exhibit better overall performance and higher incidence of employment expansion compared to other businesses. The most common reason for non-adoption is the inapplicability of AI to the business.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Bonney & Cory Breaux & Catherine Buffington & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Nathan Goldschlag & John Haltiwanger & Zachary Kroff & Keith Savage, 2024. "Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey," Working Papers 24-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lu Fang & Zhe Yuan & Kaifu Zhang & Dante Donati & Miklos Sarvary, 2025. "Generative AI and Firm Productivity: Field Experiments in Online Retail," Papers 2510.12049, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    2. Anthony R. Harding & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2024. "Watts and Bots: The Energy Implications of AI Adoption," CESifo Working Paper Series 11360, CESifo.
    3. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David J. Deming & Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen, 2026. "Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 34995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Zara Contractor & Germ'an Reyes, 2025. "Generative AI in Higher Education: Evidence from an Elite College," Papers 2508.00717, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    5. Ivan Yotzov & Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Steven J. Davis & Kevin M. Foster & Aaron Jalca & Brent H. Meyer & Paul Mizen & Michael A. Navarrete & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwai, 2026. "Firm Data on AI," NBER Working Papers 34836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Steven J. Davis & Kevin Foster & Aaron Jalca & Brent Meyer & Paul Mizen & Michael Navarrete & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites & Ben Wang & Ivan Y, 2026. "Firm Data on AI," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2026-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Bonney, Kathryn & Breaux, Cory & Buffington, Catherine & Dinlersoz, Emin & Foster, Lucia & Goldschlag, Nathan & Haltiwanger, John & Kroff, Zachary & Savage, Keith, 2024. "The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    7. Yoshiki Ando & Emin Dinlersoz & Jeremy Greenwood & Ruben Piazzesi, 2025. "Technifying Ventures," NBER Working Papers 33993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fabian Kosse & Tim Leffler & Arna Woemmel, 2025. "Digital Skills: Social Disparities and the Impact of Early Mentoring," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1222, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Benjamin G. Hyman & Benjamin Lahey & Karen Ni & Laura Pilossoph, 2025. "How Retrainable are AI-Exposed Workers?," NBER Working Papers 34174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Thomas Licht & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "AI Adoption Among German Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 11459, CESifo.
    11. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David Deming, 2023. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI," On the Economy 98843, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Jacob Dominski & Christopher Hoy & Cassandra Merritt & Yong Suk Lee, 2026. "Managers as gatekeepers in the age of AI," IFS Working Papers W26/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Zara Contractor & Germán Reyes, 2025. "Generative AI in Higher Education: Evidence from an Elite College," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0359, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    14. Aldasoro, Iñaki & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Pal, Rozalia & Revoltella, Debora & Weiss, Christoph & Wolski, Marcin, 2026. "AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms," EIB Working Papers 2026/02, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    15. Leland D. Crane & Paul E. Soto, 2026. "AI and Coder Employment: Compiling the Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2026-018, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Fabian Kosse & Tim Leffler & Arna Woemmel, 2024. "Digital Skills: Social Disparities and the Impact of Early Mentoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 11570, CESifo.
    17. Florencia Jaccoud, 2025. "Robots & AI exposure and wage inequality: a within occupation approach," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(4), pages 1035-1090, December.
    18. Jaccoud, Florencia, 2025. "Robots & AI Exposure and Wage Inequality," MERIT Working Papers 2025-013, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Liu, Yan & Wang, He, 2026. "Who on earth is using Generative AI?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    20. repec:ces:ceswps:_12201 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Matilde Mas & Francisco Pérez & Dirk Pilat, 2025. "Productivity, technology and intangible assets," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 321-360, June.
    22. Lorenzo Bencivelli & Sara Formai & Elena Mattevi & Tullia Padellini, 2025. "Embracing the digital transition: the adoption of cloud computing and AI by Italian firms," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 946, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    23. Eleanor W. Dillon & Sonia Jaffe & Nicole Immorlica & Christopher T. Stanton, 2025. "Shifting Work Patterns with Generative AI," NBER Working Papers 33795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Etheridge, Ben & Bharier, David & Morais, Paulo, 2026. "AI adoption and workforce change in SMEs," ISER Working Paper Series 2026-01, Institute for Social and Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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